WEEK 9“Hey, ya' got Pac Man?”
“No.”
“Ya' got Space Invaders?”
“Nope.”
“Ya' got Asteroids?”
“Naw, but my dad does. Can't even sit on the toilet some days.”no idea.
THURSDAY1.
SYRACUSE (5-1) AT #19 PITTSBURGH (6-0) -5.5.
losswell, I would've been all over the orange had I got my picks in last night. pitt entered the game 1-8 ats off back/back su/ats wins vs .600+ opponents, while 'cuse was 11-2 ats when both teams were off a win. but those trends easily get annihilated when you give up 3 pick-6's. in the 1st qtr, the panthers had 9 offensive plays for 16 yds, which is pitiful, yet led 17-0. at the end of the 1st half, pitt had just 105 total yds on 25 plays yet entered the locker room w/a 31-0 lead. wow.
FRIDAY2. LOUISVILLE (4-3) AT
BOSTON COLLEGE (4-3) +7.
winhome team is 6-0 su in this series of late, and l'ville has been outgained in all 4 acc games by nearly 60 yds/game. not a good trend for a week night road favorite. golden eagles are also 8-3 ats as home dogs of 10/less. b-c.
3. #17
BOISE STATE (5-1) AT UNLV (6-1) +3.5.
winrematch of last yr's mountain west title game, yet this one has more at stake w/the expanded playoff format. unlv actually averages nearly 6 yds/carry, which gets overshadowed when boise averages nearly 8/carry behind ashton jeanty. the rebels have lived off causing turnovers (+12 so far in '24), which is needed because their defense gives up 340 yds/game thru the air. the broncos take care of the ball (just 3 turnovers this season). I'm swallowing the hook w/boise st.
SATURDAY4.
WASHINGTON (4-3) AT #13 INDIANA (7-0) -6.5.
loss. iu continues to impress...you wouldn't know it by the records, but these two have both outgained all 7 of their opponents this year. iu's 56-7 blowout over nebraska came w/a price, losing qb curtis o'rourke to a fractured thumb that needed surgery this week. that, combined w/the huskies' 6-0 ats record vs foes off back/back su/ats wins... I think this one stays close. uw.
5. #12 NOTRE DAME (6-1) AT #24
NAVY (6-0) +13.
loss, thx in huge part to navy's 6 turnovers97th mtg between these 2, but just the 11th time when both have been ranked coming into the game. since the upset loss to no. illinois, the Irish have quietly been pretty dominant, especially on d, holding opponents 118 yds below their season average. the middies have been one of the great cfb stories this yr, and they've opened up their offense much more this yr, but last week's 51-17 blowout over charlotte came not due to offense but being +5 in turnovers, including 2 pick 6's. yet, nd is just 3-11-1 ats vs revenge (they beat navy 44-3 in '23), cfb home dogs who scored 50+ in their last game are 8-0 ats of late, and (cfb nerd stat alert) home/neutral site dogs who are 5-0/better w/revenge vs out of conference opponents who allow 21/less a game are 15-1-1 ats since 1980. you just can't make that s*** up. lol. anchors aweigh!
6. TULANE (5-2) AT
NORTH TEXAS (5-2) +7.5.
loss. again by 0.5the green wave slept-walked thru a 24-10 win over rice last wk where they were outgained by 40 yds and need 2 4th qtr td's to put the owls away, while the mean green lost a 52-44 shootout at memphis. north texas is 13-7 su off a su loss, and has a huge edge on offense behind qb chandler norris (3rd in country in passing offense). tulane has an edge on defense, but I like the home dog w/revenge. north texas.
7. #21 MISSOURI (6-1) AT #15
ALABAMA (5-2) -14.
winthe world seems upside down when the tide is ranked behind indiana in football but ahead of the hoosiers in the preseason hoops rankings. it's the 1st time since '07 that alabama has 2 losses before november, but I bet it's been even longer since they've been outgained in 3 straight games. but I think mizzou is a paper tiger here, especially w/their best rb and #3 wr out, and qb brady cook doubtful after his ankle injury last week. the crimson tide has won 19 straight sec home games (13-5-1 ats). not a fan of big homecoming favorites, but due to desperation, 'yea alabama'.
8. #20
ILLINOIS (6-1) AT #1 OREGON (7-0) -21.5.
no scare here. loss1st meeting in 3 decades and just the 4th all time. the illini come in off a ($$ for me!) 21-7 win over michigan, despite being outgained 322-267, thanks in large part to 3 ugly hat turnovers. defense travels, but uo's offense is a different universe than um's. the ducks are better on both sides of the ball, plus they're 7-3 ats as 20+ conference home chalk of late. still, w/the 2nd half of the season the spread-cover noose starts tightening a little on unbeaten teams, plus illinois is 5-1 ats getting 13+, 6-1 ats vs unbeaten opponents, 7-1 ats in their last 8 games as road dogs, and 7-1 ats off back/back wins, and I think they continue those trends in eugene to give oregon a scare.
9.
MARYLAND (4-3) AT MINNESOTA (4-3) -4.
well, the gophers certainly topped 27 this week. ha. lossterps come in off a huge 4th qtr comeback from 2 td's down to beat usc 29-28. they average 436 yds/game on offense, which is in the top 25% of the country. gophers allow just 283?game which is top 10 (9th). but minnesota's offense is spotty, they've yet to top 27 pts in a contest so far, and they're 10-38-1 ats as favorites in minnesapolis when they don't score 28+. maryland my maryland.
10. #5 TEXAS (6-1) AT #25
VANDERBILT (5-2) +18.5.
win1st meeting in nearly a century (1928). did anyone see the video of vandy erecting netting from goal line to goal line on the visitors side of firstbank stadium? presumably to keep the longhorn riff-raff's tossed debris from entering the playing field? lmao. of course, fans of visiting teams who travel to away games are typically not the rowdy type, but you never can be too sure, right?
before looking at the numbers I figured everything would point to texas getting back on track, but the trends actually point the other direction. 1st, their signature win in ann arbor is looking less impressive w/um's struggles. here's a cfb nerd stat for you; since 1980, teams who are 6-1 off that initial loss of the season are 20-33-1 ats, and just 8-19 ats in league road games. ut is 1-6 ats as road chalk of 14+, 0-6 ats prior to a bye. the 'dores are also 4-1 ats as home dogs of 2 td's/more. vanderbilt.
11. #8
LSU (6-1) AT #14 TEXAS A&M (6-1) -2.5.
talk about an ugly 2nd half. lossonly remaining unbeatens in sec play get together in college station, ironically both teams lost their openers and have righted their ships since. here's another cfb nerd stat alert; road dogs in sec games this season are 13-2 ats so far. tigers are also 14-2 ats in the 2nd of back/back away games of late, while the aggies are just 3-7 ats as sec home faves of 5/less, and 0-9 ats off 2+ wins when facing lsu. I'll take the points w/the bayou bengals.
12.
MICHIGAN STATE (4-3) AT MICHIGAN (4-3) -3.5.
loss. had a bad feeling when sparty drove the entire field on their opening drive, taking nearly 8:00, then got stuff inside the 5 followed by a missed chip shot fgbefore the season started, um was -24.5 in this matchup. now there's talk that sherrone moore's future in a-a could be in question. in '23 the wolverines hung a 49-0 beating on sparty, the largest margin of victory in the history of the series, so msu has revenge on their mind. they're also 13-3 ats in this series since '07. still, michigan has won 17 straight big 10 games at the big house, and their defense remains very stingy. the offense remains pretty stinky though. which means a shaky nod to the visitors in a game that should go down to the last possession.
13. #3 PENN STATE (6-0) AT
WISCONSIN (5-2) +6.5.
lossafter blowout losses to 'bama/usc, the badgers have turned it around behind a defense that's given up just 16 pts total the last 3 games. psu fans seem more focused on next week's game w/tosu not being a night game than tomorrow night's affair at camp randall. the nitty come in off a bye after a dramatic come from behind win over the trojans, and have won/covered 5 straight vs uw. but penn st is 0-3 su/ats off an off week when facing .666+ foes. and there's this; bucky badger is 14-2 ats as a big 10 home dog when their record is .700+. on wisconsin.
14. #22 SMU (6-1) AT
DUKE (6-1) +11.5.
winmustangs travel to durham for the 1st time since '56, and since an 18-15 loss to byu, smu has won 4 straight averaging over 45 pts/game. all 4 of duke's wins vs fbs opponents have been by a total of 19 pts. smu is 6-3 ats as road chalk of late, but they're just 3-7 ats away vs .700+ foes. the blue devils are 7-1 ats as acc home underdogs of 14/less, 10-3-1 ats as acc home dogs when their record is .333+. they also have an edge on defense. duke
15.
CINCINNATI (5-2) AT COLORADO (5-2) -5.5.
lossuc vs cu in boulder. the buffalos' improvement in '24 has come thanks to a much improved defense. last year they gave up 443 yds/game; so far this year that's down to 336/game. the tilting point in the game imho will be whether the bearcats' strong run attack can control the clock, protecting their suspect pass d vs colorado's combo of sanders/hunter. I'm looking forward to this one. cincy.
before looking at the numbers I figured everything would point to texas getting back on track, but the trends actually point the other direction. 1st, their signature win in ann arbor is looking less impressive w/um's struggles. here's a cfb nerd stat for you; since 1980, teams who are 6-1 off that initial loss of the season are 20-33-1 ats, and just 8-19 ats in league road games. ut is 1-6 ats as road chalk of 14+, 0-6 ats prior to a bye. the 'dores are also 4-1 ats as home dogs of 2 td's/more. vanderbilt.
