Thursday Night Games:
UCLA -5 ½ at Arizona State: would feel better about this game if both qb's were healthy. game started out ucla -4 til it looked like hundley is at least probable. that said, even w/hundley, the bruins have not come close to meeting expectations. could say they're due, and that's true, but you've got another thursday night home dog vs a ranked team. last 3 games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points. lots of trends favor the devils. ucla is just 1-6 as road chalk -6+; home dogs w/rest off a win vs league foe are 75-45-1 since '80; home teams off 3 straight wins are 8-3 vs opponents off 3 straight wins in the last 30 years, 6-0 if it's a league opponent. give me the weeknight magic. arizona state.
Texas Tech +13 ½ at Oklahoma State: 13.5 sure does make the 'boys inviting. surely they win by 2 td's+, right? both are 2-1, but okie st has played the much tougher schedule, and tech looked positively putrid on d vs arkansas 2 weeks ago. and the cowboys have won 5 straight in the series, the last 3 by 39/game. but a new qb for okla st is a little worrisome. tech's d-coord resigned after the hogs debacle, and i'm wondering if that shakes things up some. plus here's another game 4 cfb nerd trend; road teams w/rest off their 1st loss of the season by 8+ are 18-3 ats in their next game since 1980. i'll take a chance on the red raiders.
Saturday Games:
Missouri +6 at South Carolina: battle of the columbias. last year the 'cocks gave mizzou its only regular season loss, coming from 17-0 down to win in 2ot 27-24. i'm still floored that iu knocked off the tigers last week. normally a team getting points off a home favorite loss is a good play, but missouri is only 2-13-1 ats in that scenario. plus carolina played much better than the 48-34 final score vs vandy last week. and any problems usc-e has had in the sec lately has rarely happened vs the east; cocks are 19-3 su vs division opponents. vandy was a let down spot after the uga win, this is not. south carolina.
Arkansas +9 ½ at Texas A&M: sometimes the style of how a game plays out helps determine a winner. imho that's certainly the case here. both aggies and hogs have impressed early. a&m via air (hill is completing 70%, averaging 340 yd/game w/13 td's), arkansas on the ground (1,145 yds rushing the last 3 weeks). rice ran for 240 yds on a&m 2 weeks ago. hmm. aggies are 2-18 ats when giving up 230+ rushing. hmmmm. a&m is 0-4 ats in their last 4 neutral site games. hmmmmmm. bret bielema has only lost 2 of his last 53 games as a coach by 10+ points. hmmmmmm. it would help a lot if razorbacks don't have to play catch up a lot here, but soo-eee. arkansas.
Minnesota +11 1/2 at Michigan: this week's episode of 'as the big house turns'. plenty of turmoil after losing to utah 26-10 saturday. gophers were unimpressive beating san jose st. 24-7. minnesota runs the ball well, but michigan stops the run pretty well. gophers' qb last week was 1-7 passing for 7 yards. ugly hats have won/covered 6 straight in this series, and they actually have much better stats than their 2-2 record would indicate. problem? turnovers. answer? will hoke bench gardner in favor of backup shane morris? i think he does, i think morris holds on to the ball, i think minnesota again because the balm to michigan's razor burn. wolverines.
Colorado +13 ½ at California: both the buffs and bears are better, but the bar was low; these 2 teams had combined to win just 9 games in 2 years coming into the season. cal's heartache finish vs arizona, and now they're a favorite-by 2 td's-for the first time in 2 years? i read where cal's online store actually sent out an email congratulating the bears on their 'win'... before the hail mary. colorado is just 6-16 the last 4 yrs getting points on the road, but they're 5-1 on the road +14/less vs teams off a loss. cal's better, but that's too many points. buffalos.
Oregon State +9 at USC: the dog in this series has not just covered 5 of the last 6, but won 3 outright. revenge spot for the beavers after losing 31-14 in '13. oregon st is also 8-2 in its last 10 games as a dog, 11-1 getting pts vs a team off a su loss as a favorite. plus teams in sc's spot (off an away loss scoring 28+ as -6/more) are just 17-28 ats since '02. i'm going with the backdoor beaver cover. how can that possibly be bad??
North Carolina +14 at Clemson: how is it physically possible, unc, to give up 789 yards in a game, let alone 70 pts, when you have the same number of players on the field as east carolina did? heels are just 2-11 since '82 in death valley, the last 3 losses by an average 25 ppg. saw an interesting stat on the tigers; they haven't done well lately vs the noles (witness last saturday night), but they sure have recovered after each loss, going 9-0 su/7-2 ats w/the wins by an average of 20. i like the qb move to watson, clemson is better on both o-line and d-line, and all these trends continue. clemson
Tennessee +17 at Georgia: in looking at the history of this series, the vols haven't been a 2 td+ dog very often; when they have, they've covered all 3. they're 6-2 ats the last 8 in this matchup, 4-1 between the hedges. but it's a pretty tough task going to norman and then athens back to back, even w/a bye inbetween. since '11 tennessee is just 3-11 getting points on the road. uga's 66-0 shellacking of troy is probably inflating the line a point or two. but it's really hard to go against gurley. sooners wore down the vols, and i'm guessing the dawgs do the same. ut is just 1-8 in their last 9 games getting 15+, 2-9 on the road vs .600+ opponents. tennessee is better, but not good enough yet. georgia.
Cincinnati +15 ½ at Ohio State: 1921. vikduc had just graduated from hs. bamorin had just gotten married. daleko had just started his job as secretary of integrity for the harding administration. and oberlin college, the first in the country to admit women, beat ohio state in football. it was the last time an in-state school did that. and plenty of people, especially in sw ohio where the buckeyes aren't exactly the love of the land, think this is the year it happens again. gunner kiel has looked like a gunslinger in his 1st 2 games, averaging 340 passing w/8 td's. but the bearcat d? after jumping out to a 35-0 lead vs toledo, the rockets actually made it a game getting within 7 in the 4th qtr. and miami u played uc even last week, 31-24. 'cats looking ahead, perhaps? absolutely. good enough to win in the horseshoe? passing d has certainly been publicized as the bucks' achilles heel at the end of last year. va tech didn't pass for a lot but they passed effectively in the 35-21 win. that said, osu held va tech to its lowest total yards of the year in that game. ditto for kent st and navy. that hasn't gotten a lot of press, but i think it's relevant in this game. at home off a bye week, osu is 8-1 ats. they're 6-0 as chalk -17/less vs teams off back/back wins. uc's done well as road dogs (5-2-1) the last 3 yrs, and they're 6-1-1 the last 8 games getting 6+. this is another game where a home team off a win (66-0 vs kent st) and a bye is historically in a good spot (75-45-1 since '80). i like the matchup of osu's offense vs uc's d, like it enough to take the favorite. ohio state.
Duke +7 at Miami: kudos to coach cutliffe in durham, for what he's accomplished w/the blue devils. they've won 12 of their last 14 games. that's better than coach k's recent track record at cameron indoor. one of those wins was duke's first ever win over the canes, rushing for an unbelievable 358 yards. 3. 5. 8. last week unl rushed for 343. ugh. but duke doesn't have anyone close to abdullah's talent, plus the devils have run up their numbers vs pretty weak defenses in elan, troy, kansas and tulane. plus tulane had 5 turnovers vs duke, two of them pick 6's. miami may be headed in the wrong direction, but they are not elan, troy, kansas or tulane. canes have beaten duke the last 4 times they've played in south florida by a combined 108 points. and now they're playing w/revenge, and off the bad taste of the loss to nebraska. univ of miami.
Baylor -21 at Iowa State: 71-7. that was what baylor did to isu last year. ugly. and the bears have rolled in their first 3 games. but those games were against dead fish (smu, n'western st. buffalo). cyclones got drilled by n.d. state but showed a pulse vs kansas state and iowa. home team has won/covered the last 5 in this series. that should change saturday. but, nerd stat alert, game 4 home dogs w/rest and revenge, off a win, are 26-4 ats since 1980. 26-4. baylor has texas next week, and they may be peeking a little. really going off the grid here, because baylor's d is much improved, but i think they're due for a little adversity. iowa state.
fyi i will be penning a strongly-worded letter to the school principal, district superintendent, cafeteria leader, head janitor, and supervisor of bus drivers regarding the denial for extra credit in this class.
mark scott
tosu 81
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
...Helluva win on their part !!!
? LOL .....WAAAAY off .....Jeesh
