now these movie quotes i got. telling me i should get gonnorhea? well, at least you didn't make me become a nole or tide fan. lol
THURSDAY GAME
Northern Illinois -3 at Ball State: 2 of the better mac programs recently. bsu opened 1-5 before winning their last 2. niu is 6-2 but has looked little like the team that's won 11+ games in each of the last 4 years. cards have lost 5 straight in the series, are 15-8 ats getting points, and (cfb nerd stat alert #1) road favorites in november off a bye are just 7-27-1 against the spread since '80. ball state.
SATURDAY GAMES
Louisville -3 at Boston College: crushing loss for 'ville last week, who should have been up 28-0 vs fla st at the half and on their way to the upset so many thought was going to happen. tough to get back up off the mat after that. plus bc is a solid 6-3 w/a very good running qb in tyler murphy. eagles are also 6-3 ats getting points at home. but the cards get 3 key offensive players back fully healthy this weekend, and they're 6-3 ats giving points on the road, as well as being 6-3 su on the season this year. damn, that's a lot of 6-3's going on. i'll take that as a sign that l'ville will beat the 3 points line by 6. louisville.
Alabama -6 1/2 at LSU: both teams in off byes. tide has won the last 2 in the series, and after a mid-season lull on back to back road games (miss, ark), they've looked good the last 2 games. lsu has one more loss, but imho has played the tougher schedule. alabama is just 1-6 ats the last 7 times it's been a road favorite. tigers have been a home dog 3 times since '10, and covered them all. ua still has an ace in the hole w/amari cooper, who'll be the best player taking the field. my question is, can miles' rush attack keep cooper off the field? couple other trends here; saban is just 1-8 ats the last 9 times on the road vs a winning, rested opponent. lsu is 46-4 su under miles at death valley under the lights. cfb nerd stat alert #1 applies in this game too to the tide, and rested home dogs w/revenge off a win are 84-39-1 ats vs league opponents since 1980. lsu may still be a year away from challenging for a national title, but they're good enough to challenge alabama thru to the final whistle here. lsu.
Baylor +5 1/2 at Oklahoma: thought it would be ou, not the bears, still in the mnc hunt at this point. both are off blowout wins scoring 60 (bu) and 59 (ou) pts. thought it was worth noting that stoops went back to basics vs iowa st, running the ball a lot more, including qb knight, to the tune of 510 yards, most in a quarter century. another factoid; under briles, the bears are 49-8 vs losing opposition, but just 28-44 vs those w/winning records. 1st dog spot for baylor in 2 years, ou comes in w/revenge, and even though they've struggled vs baylor recently (0-6 ats at home), boomer sooner.
Ohio State +3 1/2 at Michigan State: osu leads this series 28-13, but when sparty has been good (3 losses or less in a season) the bucks are just 1-9 su. ugh. a lot of the technicals here lean scarlet & gray; msu is just 4-8 as home chalk vs the big 10, bucks haven't lost in east lansing since '99, they're 12-1 ats in their last 13 games w/revenge and the visitor has covered the last 5 games here. but sparty was better on both lines in the 4th qtr at last year's ccg. msu has the more experienced qb too. but i can't get over one historical note; the last time osu was a dog on the road in the big 10 and didn't cover, was at purdue back in '04. it's happened 6 times since and the bucks have covered all 6. this is #7. i'll be there w/my ski gear and hand warmers, and i'm going homer. ohio state.
Notre Dame +2 1/2 at Arizona State: i had 3 different buddies, including a brother in law, who took great delight in watching osu struggle vs navy before winning by 17 in the season opener. not one of them called me after nd blew a big lead before holding on by 10 vs navy last saturday. figures. asu's had some dramatic wins vs utah and usc this year. and this game is a 12:30 start out in the desert, so it's going to be hot. edge sun devils. irish lost their best lb for the season last week. edge sun devils. asu is playing w/revenge, losing 37-34 last year in south bend. edge, well, you get the picture. but nd is 8-4 getting points on the road. and asu does not have an answer for golston at qb. notre dame.
Oregon -8 1/2 at Utah: ducks exercised some demons last week demolishing the trees. utes had a chance to beat arizona st but their outstanding kicker missed an ot fg that would have won it. like alabama, uo struggled for a couple games mid-season but seems to have found its footing, averaging 48/game in its last 4. ducks are an outstanding 14-6-1 ats as road favorites, utes 7-3 as home dogs. ducks are allowing 500+ yds/game and 34 pts/game on the road this year. utah kind of reminds you of the stanford teams who've given uo trouble recently. shaky nod to utah.
Kansas State +6 at TCU: another great match up. tcu is all of a sudden like oregon. ksu plays the kind of d tcu used to play. wildcats are 11-4 getting pts on the road. frogs showed some gumption coming from behind in a tough morgantown environment. normally i'd grab the point here, but i like tcu. wouldn't be surprised if i'm wrong, though.
UCLA -4 1/2 at Washington: i watched ucla's 17-7 win over arizona late saturday night and the bruins have proven their mettle vs any school from arizona, but they've struggled vs everyone else. huskies have covered 5 of the last 7 getting points at home. bruins just 1-4 ats their last 5 as road chalk. washington.
Virginia +19 1/2 at Florida State: sandwich game for the noles, off a tough win at louisville and w/the canes on the road next week. uva impressed early, but has struggled the last month. cavs are 5-1-2 as big acc road dogs, but fsu is a good big (21+) acc home favorite (6-1). florida state.
Georgia -10 at Kentucky: even though i picked the gators last week to cover, i was still shocked at the outcome of that game. so do the dawgs bounceback or are they still hungover? they beat uk 59-17 last year, and have auburn on deck. cats have improved this year, and they've played well at home. uk.
Iowa -1 1/2 at Minnesota: one of the lesser known big rivalries here. after looking mediocre at maryland, hawkeyes looked unbeatable vs n'western. gophers started well but struggled the last 2 weeks and lost to lowly illinois. i don't think a bye helps them. iowa is 10-4-1 lately in the series. make it 11. iowa.
Colorado +16 1/2 at Arizona: 255 yards and 7 points were all that ua could must vs ucla. ugly. buffs have shown some signs of life this year, but not that much away from home. arizona.
Duke -3 1/2 at Syracuse: saw a lot of duke-pitt last weekend, and i was impressed that the dukies look, physically, more like a football team. but somehow they keep losing the stats and winning the scoreboard. that catches up w/you, and i think it's this week. syracuse.
Michigan -1 at Northwestern: the loser here likely stays home for the post-season. it's been a nightmare season for both, but um's defense has still played well. michigan.
mark scott
tosu 81
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
