WEEK 12
1. (8-2) #19 MICHIGAN +7.5 AT #5 WISCONSIN (10-0)
have mentioned the last couple weeks that as seasons go on, it's much tougher for unbeatens to beat spreads. plus uw is 0-7 ats off back/back su/ats wins vs an opponent off back/back su/ats wins. badgers are also just 1-6 ats as -6+ vs a decent (.600+) big 10 foe, and 2-4 ats as single digit chalk vs league teams. ugly hats are 6-1 ats as underdogs off a 10+ ats win. cfb nerd stat alert; 10-0 teams who won 10+ the previous yr, off 2 wins, are just 5-23 ats vs conference opponents. michigan.
2. (5-5) UCLA +16 AT #12 USC (9-2)
trojans one of the few teams (only team?) playing their season finale this wknd. usc just 2-4 ats as home chalk this yr and i haven't been able to find the last time they won and covered double digits vs the bruins in consecutive yrs (won 36-14 in '16). plus this is sc's 12th straight game w/o a bye week. pretty flimsy reasoning, but what the hell... i'm near the bottom anyway. ucla.
3. (5-5) CAL +16 AT #20 STANFORD (7-3)
cardinal has dominated cal in this rivalry lately (7-0 su, 6-1 ats), but off a upset home win vs washington? su is 1-7 ats off a dog win of late, 0-5 ats after playing the huskies, 4-12 ats before taking on notre dame. good sandwich scenario for the bears, who off a bye week, are 8-1 ats getting 10+. california.
4. (7-3) #25 NCSTATE +1.5 AT WAKE FOREST (6-4)
deacons have scored 143 pts the last 3 weeks. wolfpack much better on d and has won the last 3 in the series. but the visitor the last 10 years is just 1-9 ats. wake forest.
5. (6-4) VIRGINIA +19.5 AT #2 MIAMI (9-0)
so after 2 straight dominating wins as a home dog, can the canes keep the foot on the gas as a heavy favorite? miami is just 2-5 ats the last 7 times they've been -10/more chalk vs acc foes. uva is 8-4-1 ats the last 2+ yrs getting pts on the road. plus there's that season-ending struggles for unbeatens covering as favorites that i mentioned earlier. virginia.
6. (6-3) NAVY +17 AT #9 NOTRE DAME (8-2)
wasn't as surprised that the irish lost in miami as how it happened, getting manhandled by the canes' d. so naturally they'll take it out on navy, right? middies beat nd last year 28-27, and they are a really good (9-5 ats) road dog. but their run defense is pretty soft, and i expect brian kelly to want to grind things out, even w/their playoff hopes all but vanished. notre dame.
7. (7-3) KENTUCKY +21.5 AT #7 GEORGIA (9-1)
uk may be the softest 7-3 team in the country, and have lost 7 straight to uga, tho last year it took a last-second fg. cats have been outgained in all but 2 games this season. but they are 6-2 ats getting pts on the road, while the dawgs are just 1-4 ats since '13 as sec favorites of 20+. that 1? vs kentucky. georgia.
8. (8-2) ARMY +3 AT NORTH TEXAS (7-3)
great year for the cadets. they're 8-1 ats in away/neutral games vs .600+ opponents, 8-5 ats as road dogs lately. mean green just 1-3 ats the last 3 yrs as home favorites. army.
9. (6-4) SMU +11.5 AT #19 MEMPHIS (8-1)
last yr memphis mauled the mustangs 51-7. in '15 the score was 63-0; '14 it was 48-10. lets just say i'm not sure the tigers are taking smu seriously this week. memphis is just 6-12 ats as home chalk the last 5 yrs, 2-9 ats in the 1st of back/back home games. smu is 5-2 ats as road dogs lately, 5-0 ats getting 10+. smu.
10 (7-3) FRESNO STATE -1.5 AT WYOMING (7-3)
not only has wyoming won 6 of 7, they've covered 7 straight games. the cowboys are 7-3 ats as home dogs since '15, and 8-1 ats vs .700+ mwc opponents of late. after starting the season w/6 covers, the bulldogs have failed to get the $$ in their last 3 games, just 2-9 ats in the 2nd of back/back road games, but 6-0-1 as road favorites of 9/less off a win. wyoming qb josh allen got dinged last week, but i think in his last home game he'll make a run to play. wyoming.
11. (6-3) FLORIDA International +14.5 AT FLORIDA Atlantic (7-3)
fau is 0-10 ats as a favorite vs a team they beat the previous year. florida international.
12. (5-5) MINNESOTA +7.5 AT NORTHWESTERN (7-3)
golden gophers are 9-3 ats lately in this series, and 15-6-2 ats getting points vs big 10 foes. 'cats are giving up just 89 yds rushing/game vs league opponents, and minnesota already can't run. nw definitely is the more physical team, but they're pnly 3-8 ats when laying more than a td. minnesota.
13. (6-4) TEXAS A&M +2 AT MISSISSIPPI (5-5)
rebs are 8-2 ats after scoring 35+ in a game, but a money-eating 1-13 ats vs sec teams w/revenge. they beat the aggies 29-28 last yr. texas a&m.
14. (7-3) U ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM +10.5 AT FLORIDA (3-6)
2nd time in 5 yrs uf won't get to 6 wins, gators are 0-7 ats as ooc favorites of less than 35. uab is 9-1 to the number this year, and can run the ball (213/game). and frankly, after the program went away for 2 years, what they've accomplished this season is remarkable. not sure if they have the horses to beat a sec opponent, but they have enough to cover. uab.
15. (8-2) #10 OKLAHOMA STATE -21 AT KANSAS STATE (5-5)
this game is actually in stillwater, not the little apple. ksu is 6-2 ats as road dogs, and 4 of the last 6 games in this series have been decided by less than a td. the cowboys haven't blown away any big 12 foes not named baylor. kansas state.
16. (8-2) #11 TCU -7.5 AT TEXAS TECH (5-5)
red raiders have beaten kansas and baylor. they've lost to every other big 12 opponent. despite tcu's disappointment after losing in norman last week, i think the horned frogs take out a swamp-load of frustration here. tcu.
my own bonus pick... temple +14 at ucf. upset alert.