1. CLEMSON AT TEXAS AM+12.5
has to be comforting to have (imho) the best d-line in cfb when on the road, but lately the tigers are 1-5 ats away vs sec opponents, 1-4 ats in road openers. meanwhile jimbo fisher, in 53
edit-HOMEgames as an undefeated head coach, has never lost a game by more than 11 points.
texas a&m2. UGA AT USCe+10
home team has covered 4 of the last 6 in the series. gamecocks get wr deebo samuel back from injury, which is big. uga is 7-15 ats in its last 4 road openers, 0-5 ats when the line is -10+, while use-e went 7-1 ats as dogs last yr w/5 outright upsets, 7-3 ats as home dogs of 10/less. cfb nerd stat alert: sec teams w/triple revenge (cocks have lost the last 3 to the dawgs) off scoring 38+ are 22-1 ats at home vs league foes.
south carolina3. PSU AT PITT+8.5
thought the nitts might struggle a little vs appy state last week, but not to the tune of having to score in the last 1:00 to send the game to ot. panthers actually outgained psu in last yr's 33-14 loss. lions are an awful 1-9-1 ats as road chalk of 14/less, while pitt is 9-2 ats w/ooc revenge, and 11-0-1 ats as home dogs of 8+.
pittsburgh4. MICHST AT AZST+6.5
sparty nearly got upset too at home vs utah st. asu beat utsa to open the herm edwards era, and the sun devils will play... to win... the game.. this week too. they're just 2-6 ats as home dogs of less than 14 lately, but 10-0 su at home vs big 10 foes. msu is 0-6 ats the last 6 vs the pac 12, but 23-15 ats on the road. I think dantonio's run game will eventually win out, but still close.
arizona state5. IOWA ST AT IOWA-4
midway thru the 3rd qtr vs no illinois, iowa was up just 3-0 and I was feeling pretty good about it. then they scored 30 points in 20:00 and I didn't feel so smart. hawkeyes are strong up front on d I think. cyclones got stormed out of their opener so this is game #1 in a place where they've covered 8 of the last 10. last yr isu went 8-5, w/4 of the losses by a td/less. iowa is just 1-7 ats vs ooc revenge, 13-22 ats as home chalk. the road team is an amazing 25-12 ats in this series, and even with the small number that's hard to buck.
iowa statemore later.
later-ok, let's see if I can make sure I include complete qualifying statements moving forward...
6. DUKE AT NORTHWESTERN-3
4th straight yr these two academic powerhouses have met on the gridiron. last season the blue devils pulled off a surprising blow out, out-gaining the cats 540-191 and outscoring them 41-17. duke's 34-14 win vs army last week was virtually even on the stat sheet. nu is 6-1 su/ats vs acc foes, 8-3 ats as home chalk. with the small number I like the revenge angle...
northwestern7. COLORADO AT NEBRASKA-4.5
1st mtg since '10 for the 2 ex-big 8/12 rivals. buffs spanked colo st 45-13 last saturday, but will run into an even more passionate team/stadium who not only is itching to play under new head coach scott frost, but pissed that akron didn't allow its players to stay in individual homes in lincoln so they could still play sunday after weather cancelled the game saturday night. huskers have been good in season openers (10-3 ats), and even though cu qb steven montez looked good vs csu, w/just 5 returning starters I don't see life on the road going as smoothly. big red fans will see themselves as title contenders after this one...
nebraska8. FRESNO ST AT MINNESOTA-2.5
in '16, fresno won 1 game. in '17 the bulldogs went 10-4 su (10-2-1 ats, even more impressive). their 79-13 win over idaho was fueled by 7 vandal to's, and I wonder whether that's repeatable. fsu is also just 1-5 su/ats in its last 6 road openers, but 11-2 ats getting points lately. gophers are just 4-11 ats as home faves, but coach pj fleck has won 17 straight games where his team out-gained his opponents. if the line was 3 I'd go for a push, but the extra .5 has me leaning shakily toward the home team.
minnesota9. USC AT STANFORD-4
both these teams needed strong 2nd halves to gain wins in their openers. the cardinal has a double revenge factor (losing twice to sc last yr), and is 16-9 ats in pac-12 home games, while the trojans are on a 1-5 ats slide as league road dogs. they also have frosh qb j.t. making his 1st road start. in games as a small (7/less) favorite, stanford is 19-9-1 ats. in games as a +7/less dog, usc is 0-7 ats.
stanford10. CAL AT BYU-3.5
byu impressed me in their win at arizona last week. but the cougars have dropped 4 straight at home vs pac-12 foes. cal dominated unc before allowing a couple garbage 4th qtr scores in a 24-17 win. I think the bears are good enough to cause some nervous moments in the pac-12 north, plus they've won su their last 4 road openers.
california11. GEORGIA TECH AT USF+3.5
tech rushed for 430+ last week vs alcorn st. yeah it was alcorn st but that's still impressive. what's not so impressive is the yellow jackets' record as road chalk lately, going 0-5 su/ats. meanwhile, usf is 16-2 su at home the last few years, their 'bama transfer qb blake barnett looked good in an opening win, and I think the .5 will matter here too.
south florida12. ARIZONA AT HOUSTON-4.5
houston had to come from behind to beat rice last week, while the 'cats were getting mauled at home by byu. the cougars are very good on their o-line, as well as having the oliver kid who may end up taking home the outland trophy on their d-line, and beat 'zona in tucson last season. plus they're 20-2 su at home of late, but just 4-18 su vs pac-12 opponents. ua qb tate is due for a breakout game.
arizona13. NEVADA AT VANDERBILT-9
by my count, last week there were 9 games where the opening line was moved 3+ points by the public by kickoff. the teams the public liked went 2-7 ats. just sayin'. one of those was vandy, who dropped from -6.5 to -3 vs middle tenn st and proved the public wrong in a 35-7 blowout. nevada put up 72 on portland st, but the wolfpack is just 3-23 su in road openers. since '09 the 'dores are 9-3-1 ats vs ooc foes at home.
vanderbilt14. KENTUCKY AT FLORIDA-14
not sure how much more heartbreak uk football can take. 3 of the last 4 years the 'cats have been in position to end a losing streak now at 31 to the gators, only to fall short by 6/less. after going 4-7 su last yr, the gators are one of the more experience teams in the country w/19 returning starters. the question is whether uf's offense can turnaround to support their talented defense. uk is just 12-20-1 ats as sec dogs, but last week they beat central michigan 35-20 despite 4 turnovers. flipping a coin here....
kentucky15. MISSISSIPPI ST AT KANSAS ST+9.5
ksu need a punt return td last week to spark a comeback win over south dakota in a game where they were rotating their qb's. msu hired offensive guru joe moorhead away from psu and gets qb nick fitzgerald back from an opening game suspension. but the wildcats are 20-2 su at home vs ooc, coach bill snyder is money when getting points (10-3 ats as home dog). some cfb nerd stats to ponder; new cfb head coaches are just 9-67 su ooc road openers vs opponents off a win, and snyder is 37-3 su AT HOME when undefeated vs ooc opponents, and just 1 of those 3 losses is by 7+ points.
kansas stateBONUS GAME (YES...IT COUNTS!)
16. MIAMI-OH -1 V CINCINATI AT CINCY'S PAUL BROWN STADIUM
uc has taken home the victory bell 12 straight times in this backyard rivalry, and coming off an upset win at ucla you'd think they'd be favored. so why are they getting a point? hmm. the last 4 games in this longest running (123 games after saturday) ooc series in cfb have all gone down to the wire, decided by a td/less. last yr the bearcats got a pick-6 with 1:00 left for a 21-17 win. the dog has covered the last 5 in this series, but the redhawks are 14-7 ats in games off a su favorite loss, and (final cfb nerd stat alert) teams like uc, who are off a su upset win as +7/more dogs, are just 2-15 ats vs ooc foes w/revenge. but everyone knows that...
miami university
nebraska
