So now that we’ve got that little Super Bowl distraction out of the way, get ready for the spring training moment you’ve all been waiting for.
Pitchers.
Catchers.
And, last but definitely not least …
The s— show.
Wait. The s— show? What the heck is that supposed to mean?
All right, let’s explain. As spring training approached and the talk turned to all of MLB’s new rule changes, I noticed I began to hear the same descriptive, spring-foreshadowing term over and over:
The s— show.
People in big-league front offices used it. Even people inside the commissioner’s office seemed to drop it way more casually than you’d expect. And why is that?
Because every one of baseball’s dramatic new rule changes — shift bans! … pitch clocks! … pickoff limits! … larger bases that shrink the distance between first and second! — will be in effect from Day One of spring training. Not March 1. Not March 15. Not Opening Day. Not April 15. It all starts on Day One of spring training.
And what’s the logic behind that? To get “the s— show” over with as early as possible. That’s what I was told, and more than once. And if you think it through, that makes sense.
At some point, somewhere over the horizon, there is widespread confidence that these rules are going to transform baseball into a more watchable, more entertaining sport in many important ways. But between now and whenever that point arrives, there is going to be a period of … OK, let’s just use the word “adjustment.”
Hitters … pitchers … umpires … managers … even you and your family, sitting in the upper deck … you’re all going to need to reprogram your brains once these rules enter your lives. And won’t that make for an entertaining baseball experience?
So what’s that going to entail? I’ve been asking managers, front-office personnel and baseball officials that question for the past few weeks. Now, based on their input, I’m ready to answer your most burning questions on … the s— show that’s about to bust out this spring training.
Why does MLB actually want a s— show?
Goodbye to the shift. Hello to chaos. (Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)
Even the people in baseball who have pushed hardest for these rule changes understand. This won’t be easy. And this won’t always be picturesque.
A lifetime of player routines and thought processes can’t possibly be reconfigured in a day, a week or a Zoom call. There are going to be violations of every one of these rules, in every imaginable way. Since pitch-clock violations are going to result in “automatic” balls and strikes, things are going to get wacky.
There will be strikeouts without anybody swinging-and-missing. There will be walks without anybody throwing a pitch.
There will be balks. There will be screaming. There will be stuff unfolding on big-league baseball fields that has never unfolded before.
Some of it will be highly entertaining. Some of it will feel highly outrageous. Does that sound like a s— show to you?
If it does, you’ll be ready. If it doesn’t, whatever. There are people inside this sport who won’t mind if any of it, or all of it, breaks out. You know why? Because they hope that stuff will happen. The more s— shows they endure in spring training, the fewer they might have to deal with in April. That’s what they’re praying for, anyway.
Won’t players be cut a little slack in the beginning?
Ho-ho-ho-ho-ho. Nope!
It might seem logical from afar for baseball to phase these rules in gradually, over time. But that is not how this is going to work.
There is no more powerful value than shock value. How many times would you want to have an automatic strike called on you because you were hitting and didn’t get back into the batter’s box on time? How fast would you get your act together if that happened with two strikes and you got called out with the bases loaded?
That’s exactly how this process went in the minor leagues, you know. The pitch clock was dropped into the lives of minor leaguers during the season last April. For the next month, that went about how you’d expect.
Two weeks in, there were still nearly two pitch-clock violations being called per game. By week four, that was down to just over one a game. By week six, that rate had settled in at about one violation every two games. If the definition of “normal” is the point at which baseball clock violations were pretty much the same as NFL delay-of-game violations (0.6 per game), then the minor leagues took about a month and a half to reach that point.
So does this sport really need a phase-in period? That would seem to only postpone the inevitable. Or maybe baseball already had that phase-in period. It’s called “the offseason” — as in: “They had a whole offseason to get ready for this stuff.”
What rule is going to drive pitchers the most loco?
How will base runners, such as the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, test pitchers? (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
You might think pitchers are going to have a rough time coping with the groundballs to the right side that used to get slurped up by The Shift. You might think they’re going to be unsettled by the compressed amount of time they’ll now have to warm up between innings. But here’s what’s likely to get them most out of sync this spring:
They’re a sure bet to forget they can’t just step off the rubber every time they get flustered.
So what do we mean by that? Under the new pitch-timer rules, pitchers have a newfound word to worry about: “disengagement,” which will no longer be something that applies just to various Kardashians every time they break up with their celebrity significant others. In this context, a “disengagement” is a potentially game-changing development that occurs every time a pitcher “disengages” from the rubber in a couple of different ways.
One would be a pickoff throw. That’s easy enough to grasp. What’s harder to remember is that every time a pitcher steps off the rubber, even if it’s merely to gather his thoughts, that is also considered a “disengagement.” And for those who haven’t followed this closely, here’s why that matters:
After two “disengagements,” a pitcher can no longer throw over to first base — or any base — unless he then picks off the runner. If the runner isn’t out, it’s a balk. And that is going to dramatically alter pitching, base-stealing and the art of controlling the running game.
Managers, coaches and front offices report that they’ve tried to get their pitchers thinking about this for weeks now. But good luck to them. Think about veteran pitchers, who have spent all their lives stepping off every time they had an issue with a catcher or just needed to hit the reset button. Now there are real-life consequences for doing that. And that’s a huge deal.
That’s not merely a habit. That’s behavior that has been branded into their brain cells for so long, how can it possibly be deprogrammed in one or two trips to the mound — or 12?
So that’s a fun game you and your friends can play if you’re hanging out at any spring training games. Start a pool on how many times your favorite pitcher steps off and then shakes his head because he just frigging forgot … again. Sounds like an enjoyable beverage-consuming game to me.
What rule is likely to drive hitters the most loco?
The pitch clock will be a huge adjustment for hitters, too. (Shawn Patrick Ouellette / Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
This one is less nuanced. It’s just about that ticking pitch clock. You would think that 15 seconds between pitches with no one on base is plenty of time for any hitter. You would think that 20 seconds between pitches with runners on would be a piece of cake. But wait. You clearly haven’t read the fine print.
You see, this rule also says that the hitter must be in the box “and alert to the pitcher” with eight seconds left on that timer. In other words, with nobody on, the hitter needs to be locked in on the pitcher only seven seconds after the clock starts. You should know that quite a few teams are genuinely concerned their hitters are going to have issues with that.
Aren’t you worried about all the batting gloves that might not get adjusted now between every single pitch? Have you reflected much on all the time hitters have been allowed to spend thinking — between every single pitch — about the data they’ve been fed about what a particular pitcher likes to throw in this count or that count, in this situation or that situation?
There isn’t going to be time for that anymore. And a lot of these hitters just aren’t ready to live in that world. So violations will be flagged. Strikes will be called. Tempers will erupt. And that will be quite a sight this spring.
At least, somewhere over the horizon, a couple of months into the season, everyone will have figured it all out … and games will be zipping along in a beautiful, eminently watchable rhythm … and nobody will miss those bad old days. But first, this spring, there is s—-show potential.
Why should you pay attention every time there are runners on first and third?
So now that we have you primed on the pitch clock and disengagement rules, here’s an especially interesting situation to focus on this spring:
Runners on first and third … man on first takes a big lead … so the pitcher throws over once … then the pitcher can’t help but throw over twice … and then …
Uh-oh. That’s two “disengagements.” So then what? Is the track meet on?
In the minor leagues, for some teams, this was a time to lean into this situation, force the issue and make the defense react. In the big leagues, that’s a lock to happen on a far greater scale.
Suppose the runner on first then takes a gigantic lead? Does the pitcher take that bait, throw over to first and let a run score while a little league base-running adventure fires up? Does the pitcher get all shook up and balk home that runner on third?
This spring figures to be a time when teams will experiment with that scenario and more, just to see what happens. Sounds like the ultimate in new rules fun!
Are the umpires ready for all the stuff they now have to look out for?
Umpires will have their hands full this spring — and beyond. (Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Never in the history of baseball have umpires had more on their plates than this year. Is that good?
They still have to do 100 percent of the stuff they always did. But now they also have to keep constant track of the timers … when they start … when hitters lock into the box …when pitchers start their delivery … how many disengagements there have been … where defenses set up in this new world without shifts, etc., etc., etc.
What could possibly go wrong?
It sounds like a lot. But by all accounts, nobody is more ready for these rules than the umpires. They held a three-day new rules retreat with MLB officials in January, and pelted them with all sorts of questions about every conceivable new-rule situation. And there’s one other important thing to remember here.
Joe West retired! But not just him. There has been massive umpire turnover over the past several years. So these rules will be implemented and enforced by a much younger, much more open-minded group of umpires than would have been in place if MLB had passed these rules a decade ago.
Also, many of these younger umpires have worked with these rules in the minor leagues. So they’ll be a valuable source of information for older umps in their crews. In other words, the umpires appear to be the least of baseball’s concerns. Nevertheless, we need to ask …
Isn’t there pretty much a guaranteed ‘Angel Hernandez Moment’ coming?
I know what you’re thinking. If you’re a true connoisseur of Angel’s umpiring travails, you know there’s always another Angel Hernandez Moment coming. But in this case, there’s more of a chance than usual this spring. It’s easy to see why.
Add in … a bunch of new rules players haven’t acclimated to yet … umpires who will enforce those rules by calling actual balls on pitchers and actual strikes on hitters for timer violations … the volatility of having some of those balls and strikes — not to mention balks — resulting in walks and outs in potentially game-changing situations. And …
Hoo boy. You know.
But no reason to pick on the always-popular Angel Hernandez here, because here’s the important part: Umpires have already told managers that they’ve been instructed not to overlook anything. And managers have told umpires that’s what they prefer — at least this spring.
So get ready. MLB has urged all umpires to call every violation … no matter what the situation … even if it allows the winning run to score … and regardless of how big a star is about to get totally irritated by that call.
Who out there thinks that’s going to go smoothly … the first time that, say, Pete Alonso, gets called out on a pitch-clock violation with the winning run on third … or, say, Kenley Jansen, blows a save on a pitch-clock-induced balk?
I think we all know that answer. But think of it as what it’s designed to be — a valuable learning experience. Once it happens one time, is there any chance it happens two times?
Will we see a spring training record for ejections?
Hey, guess what? We might. Other than the fact that nobody even keeps track of spring training ejection records, they would be in serious jeopardy this spring. Here’s why.
Well, there are all the scenarios we just explained. But also, this: You know what happens to players who argue pitch-timer violations? Oh, nothing unusual, other than … automatic ejections.
MLB has told teams it will consider arguing about pitch-clock calls to be equivalent to arguing balls and strikes. And the penalty for that has always been an automatic ejection. So don’t say I didn’t warn you!
Will we see a spring training record for balks?
Richard Bleier balked for the cycle last season. Who’s next? (Brad Penner / USA Today)
Great Moments in Balk-ball History: Remember the fateful evening of Sept. 27, 2022, when Marlins reliever Richard Bleier did something that had never been done — by balking for the cycle?
He balked Jeff McNeil from first to second, second to third and third to home — all in the same at-bat. It was special. And that was before pitchers had clocks and a disengagement quota to deal with.
So is that coming to a spring training park near you? Don’t rule it out. For one thing, that Bleier balk cycle was a result of MLB leaning on umpires to start strictly enforcing the no-stop part of the balk rule last summer. And clubs are hearing that umpires have been told to be even more vigilant this year.
But beyond that, those new rules were primarily responsible for a spike in balk calls in the minor leagues last year. So if you’re a balk lover — and really, who isn’t? — this is going to be a spring for you. After all, what’s more soothing than the sight of palm trees, sunshine, gleaming baseball diamonds … and balks?
Is the two-man outfield about to become a thing?
You can wave so long to the four-man outfield. That’s now officially against the new shift rules. But what about the two-man outfield — featuring a center fielder and a right fielder, as usual, but with a left fielder set up in short right field, where shifting infielders used to hang out?
If you guessed that’s still legal, you win. But will teams dare to try it this spring? I’d bet yes on that.
At the Winter Meetings in December, MLB held a new rules meeting with all 30 managers — and then scheduled January follow-up Zoom sessions with individual managers, coaches and anyone else they wanted to loop in. One of the most asked questions at those meetings was: Is the two-man outfield legal?
Since it is, that sounds like a sure sign some teams will at least experiment with it this spring, against just the right pull-happy hitters in certain low-risk situations. But they should know that MLB will be watching closely.
MLB’s best-case scenario: The first eight teams that try it give up a bloop triple to now-unoccupied left field and everyone realizes this is way too risky. MLB’s worst-case scenario: It works way too well — and within a few weeks, every team is doing it.
But teams should know that if the two-man outfield becomes too popular, the shift ban rules allow MLB to rewrite the rule to make that formation illegal, too. So if a two-man outfield breaks out at a spring game near you, pay attention!
Is the infield-in-motion formation about to become a thing?
Have you read the new shift rule closely? If you have, you need a hobby. But either way, it’s notable the language dictates that two infielders must be set up on the infield dirt (or shallower) “when the pitch is released.”
So now imagine, as the pitcher lurches into his delivery, the shortstop starts sprinting toward the second-base bag and crosses the bag a millisecond after the pitch is delivered, so he’s on the “wrong” side of second base when the hitter swings. Is that legal?
Good question. In fact, it’s such a good question that several teams have confirmed they asked it to MLB this winter. But the answer is: No! Not legal! It’s considered a “circumvention” of the shift rule. So that will not be a spring phenomenon waiting to happen.
So will this all be worked out in spring training, and come April, everything will be cool?
Opening Day could usher in a whole new round of rule change ripple effects. (Tom Horak / USA Today)
In a perfect, dreamy, best-case world, oh yeah. Spring training would be plenty of time to iron out every potential episode of the s— show. But in real life? In this world? No chance.
How long does it take for any player to rewire his brain and expunge all muscle memory from a lifelong habit? Only your local neurosurgeon probably knows for sure. But does the answer seem like it would be “a month” — for every baseball player in North America? I’ll take the over.
In the minor leagues last year, pitch-clock violations did level off after a month but then held steady, from about week six through the end of the season, and never did disappear. So these newfangled ball/strike/balk calls are here to stay.
But now factor in the bigger picture. Remember that every front office has spent the winter brainstorming ways to exploit these new rules and gain whatever edge might be out there. Also, remember that there’s no reason those teams will reveal their favorite beat-the-rules tricks until the season actually starts. So the arrival of the regular season will launch a whole new chapter of new rules adventures.
OK, now there’s more. Remember that many players will leave these spring training camps for the World Baseball Classic — where none of the new rules will be used. So those players will miss out on weeks of new-rules indoctrination and habit-breaking.
And finally, there’s this part. It’s one thing to have the winning run score in the ninth inning of a spring training game because an umpire called a pitch-clock violation. It’s a very different thing to have the winning run score in a regular-season game for that same reason.
What are the odds of that happening in April? I’ll set them at approximately 9,000 percent, give or take a thousand. But just keep one thing in mind:
Some day, all this hubbub will pass. Some day, everyone will settle into these rules and we’ll wake up and find MLB has sliced 20 minutes off the length of the average game. And when that day comes, we’ll have to remind ourselves: Baseball never could have gotten there … without the s— shows of March.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
