“Wow. 8 Oscars, 400 million dollars, and you saved Tugg Speedman's career.”
“I couldn't have done it without you.”
“Really?”
“No, dickhead. Of course I could. A nutless monkey could do your job. Now, go get drunk and take credit at all the parties.”WEEK 81. #7
PENN STATE (6-0) AT #3 OHIO STATE (6-0) -4.5
man is psu due for a win in this series. but despite being just 2-10 su since '11, the nitts have actually covered 6 of the last 7, 3 in a row in columbus and is 10-2-1 ats in their last 13 big 10 road games. the bucks are 0-5 ats of late as home chalk of 10/less, and 0-5 ats the last 5 times they've been unbeaten vs unbeaten opponents. plus tosu still has injury questions at rb, wr and db. 6 of the last 8 between these 2 have been nail biters right to the final minutes, and I don't see this one being different. I also like undefeated underdogs. bucks win, nitts cover.
2. MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-3) AT
ARKANSAS (2-5) -6
both looking for their 1st sec win of the season. bulldogs have injury questions at qb/best rb, while the hogs must have done something to defame nick saban or something, after the league had them playing their first 4 sec games this year away from fayetteville. 4 of arkansas' 5 losses have been by 7/less, so they've been close. they're also (cfb nerd stat alert) 12-1 ats the last 13 times they've played a foe who allows 22+/game. msu is allowing 28+. razorbacks.
3. #22 AIR FORCE (6-0) AT
NAVY (3-3) +10.5
falcons are 5-2 su/ats the last 7 vs the midshipmen, and have held navy's rush attack to just 80 yds/game the last 3 meetings. the flyboys lead the nation in rushing at 334 yds/game. that said, air force is just 3-8 ats lately as ooc favorites, while the swabbies are 4-1 ats at home in the series, 14-3 ats when playing w/triple revenge and 9-2 ats getting 10+. navy.
4.
BOSTON COLLEGE (3-3) AT GEORGIA TECH (3-3) -4.5
which of these 2 have lost to a mac opponent in '23? try both. bc got beat by northern illinois and the ramblin' wreck lost to bgsu as 21 pt chalk, following that up w/the miracle win in miami as 19 pt dogs. gotta love cfb. problem for the yellow jackets is they've been outgained in their last 5 games, not a good trend for favorites. they're also 3-14 ats in game coming off a win, while the golden eagles are 20-11-1 ats as road dogs since '14. boston college.
5.
WASHINGTON STATE (4-2) AT #9 OREGON (5-1) -20
despite outgaining washington by 130 yds last week, some overly aggressive gambles that didn't pay off contributed mightily to uo's 37-34 loss in seattle. the cougars come in off 2 losses, the last a surprising 44-6 shellacking to arizona. wsu is still 14-6-1 ats vs pac 12 opponents lately, and I'm wondering if the ducks are going to be in a hangover funk while looking ahead to utah next week. the cougars are 11-2 ats in the last 13 games of this series, 7-1 ats when getting 13+ in eugene. washington state.
6. #17
TENNESSEE (5-1) AT #11 ALABAMA (6-1) -9.5
3rd saturday in october returns to tuscaloosa, after last year's 52-49 vols win in knoxville. tennessee's 567 yds of total offense was the most ever allowed by a saban-led team in an sec game. bad news for bowo is that saban is 21-7 ats when seeking revenge. might be tougher this year w/the tide o-line continuing to struggle in pass protection, after allowing arkansas 5 sacks of qb jalen milroe in last week's 24-21 win. that's a concern vs a vols d who already has 25 sacks in '23. it's also the first time in 3 years that 'bama is a single digit fave at home. alabama gets its revenge, but I think tennessee stays close.
7.
OKLAHOMA STATE (4-2) AT WEST VIRGINIA (4-2) -3.5
after 2 su upset home dog wins, the cowboys go on the road to face wvu, who scored a td w/0:12 left last week to seemingly beat houston, only to allow a Hail Mary on the final play. so can the 'eers turn the page? they're 7-2 ats lately as home chalk, osu is 13-6 ats as big 12 underdogs, 6-1-1 ats/7-1 in the series, but just 2-10 ats off a home dog win. I'll take the hot team getting pts. oklahoma state.
8. #13 OLE MISS (5-1) AT
AUBURN (3-3) +6.5
war eagle off 3 straight losses, but they're 7-1-2 ats the last 10 vs the rebels, and 10-4 ats as home sec dogs of 8/less. ol' miss is an unbelievably bad 3-20 ats as road chalk of 8/less, 2-8 ats off a bye and 8-19-2 ats as sec away faves since 2000. I'm guessing tiger coach hugh freeze is pretty motivated to beat his old employer too. w/neither team excelling on defense so far in '23, over 56.5 might not be a bad bet either. auburn.
9.
TCU (4-3) AT KANSAS STATE (4-2) -6.5
couple competing trends here. ksu is on a 7-1 ats run as home favorites of late. but the horned frogs looked good pounding byu behind frosh qb josh hoover, and they're the subject of another cfb nerd stat; since the playoffs began in '14, title game losers are 25-6 su/19-11-1 ats in league games vs foes off a su/ats win. tcu has actually outgained their opponents in every game so far this season. texas christian.
10. #2
MICHIGAN (7-0) AT MICHIGAN STATE (2-4) +24
despite the interesting (and imho entertaining-lol) news of the last 24 hrs re: deciphering opponents' hand signals in an illegal manner, it's challenging to find a way how sparty keeps this under the number, even though msu is 12-2-1 ats in the series the last 15 matchups and 7-3 ats as +10/more big 10 home dogs. um is 9-3 ats of late as road chalk and has held 6 of their 7 foes under 260 total yds. state has a good defense, but redshirt frosh qb kevin houser vs the wolverine defense in his 2nd career start? nope. michigan
11. #16
DUKE (5-1) AT #4 FLORIDA STATE (6-0) -14
duke's defense has been awesome this year, keying last week's 24-3 win over nc state in the absence of injured qb riley leonard. his replacement, redshirt frosh henry belin, completed just 4 passes for 107 yds. the noles' offense is hummin' but their d has been a little more average, giving up around 350 yds/game. the last 3 times the blue devils have been double digit dogs, not only have they covered all 3, they've won all 3. fsu is also just 1-6 ats of late as home chalk of 14/less. duke hangs around.
12. #14 UTAH (5-1) AT #18
USC (6-1) -6.5
the trojans' 48-20 beating at nd was a bit of a contradiction; they held the Irish to just 251 yds in total offense, but they allowed a kickoff return td, a fumble return td, and the other 4 turnovers all set up SHORT fields for scores. utah is the perfect next opponent, since the utes have won 3 straight in the series and beat usc not once but twice last yr, denying them a possible playoff berth. utah's defense has been dominating, allowing just 217 yds/game, which has made up for an inconsistent offense still missing qb cam rising. they're also just 1-3 ats of late as small (less than a td) road dogs. usc is 5-2 ats after playing nd, 9-2 as -5/more home chalk after allowing 35+, and 7-1 ats w/pac 12 revenge vs an opponent off a su/ats win. southern cal.
13.
CLEMSON (4-2) AT MIAMI (4-2) +2
I lost $$ on the canes last week, thinking they'd bounce back from the ga tech 'we're not taking a knee' debacle, and they actually led unc at the half but got trucked by the heels in the 2nd half. now the u gets clemson, who's gone 4-0 su/ats since '15 vs miami, outscoring them 178-30. uh, wow. this edition of dabo swinney's offense isn't putting up points anywhere near past results, but the defense remains rock solid. miami hasn't covered an acc home game in 2 yrs (0-5 ats), they're 0-5 ats at home w/acc revenge, and the tigers are 12-7-1 ats as acc road chalk since '18. clemson.
14. TOLEDO (6-1) AT
MIAMI OH (6-1) +2
this may be the strangest info nugget I've discovered this week. miami has been part of the mac since 1948, 2 yrs after the league was formed. toledo joined 2 yrs later in 1950. that's 73 years they've been in the same league, they're 2 of the most successful mac football programs (redhawks are #1 in football titles w/15, rockets #2 w/12), and yet this is just the 12th time these two have played each other. that's unreal. toledo has the better offense, miami the better defense. but the rockets are 0-5 ats as favorites this season, 1-11 ats the last 12 times they've been chalk; the redhawks have covered their last 5 games and is 7-1 ats getting points at home. I'll take the home dog.
15. NORTHWESTERN (3-3) AT
NEBRASKA (3-3) -11
last yr, n'western's only win didn't happen in the united states; it was a 31-38 upset over unl in dublin, ireland. that's the only exotic road trip of the last 6 yrs for the huskers, who haven't played in a bowl since '16. wildcats are now 2-headed at qb, still struggling to find an identity on offense. nebraska's defense has actually been pretty decent in '23, especially vs the run, allowing just 76 yds/game and giving up just 21 in an upset at illinois 2 weeks ago. despite being just 1-5 ats at home in the series of late, and 4-11 ats as big 10 favorites, northwestern is that bad this year. nebraska.
BONUS GAMES
16.
WISCONSIN (4-2) AT ILLINOIS (3-4) +2.5
a week ago uw outgained iowa by nearly 100 yds but still lost the game 15-6 and lost starting qb tanner mordecai to a hand injury, meaning braeden locke gets his 1st career start in champaign-urbana tomorrow. a year ago, ex-badger coach bret bielema led illinois to a 34-10 upset win, and the illini come in to this game off another road upset win (27-24 at maryland). but they've still outgained just 1 team this season, the badgers are 6-1 ats of late w/big 10 revenge. if they'd beaten the hawkeyes, this might have been a trap game w/the buckeyes coming to town next week. now it's not. wisconsin.
17.
SOUTH CAROLINA (2-4) AT #20 MISSOURI (6-1) -7
mizzou comes in off an impressive win at uk (38-21) last week. now they meet the gamecocks, against whom they're 4-0 su/ats since '19. usc-east blew a 10 pt 4th qtr lead to florida, prompting a post game kicking of something in the locker room by coach shane beamer, breaking his foot. 3 of their 4 losses this year have come vs ranked opponents so qb shane rattler & co. won't get rattled facing another ranked team. plus with georgia on deck next for the tigers, and carolina 8-1 ats w/quadruple revenge, upset alert. south carolina
18. JAMES MADISON (6-0) AT
MARSHALL (4-2) +3.5.
loss. jmu may be the best group of 5 team in the country this year. and they can't play for a league title nor travel for a bowl game. idioticstrength vs strength here, when it comes to the herd's effective rush attack vs a jmu defense giving up just 43 yds/game on the ground. on the flip side, the dukes' strong pass game goes up against a marshall top 20 pass d. jmu also has the revenge factor, after losing at home 26-12 to marshall in '22. that was one of 3 straight losses after a 5-0 start for jmu. history repeating itself? their 41-13 win over ga southern last week looked dominant, but 3 gsu turnover keyed that outcome. plus marshall is 18-4 su at home the last 22 times they've been off 2 straight losses, winning the last 10. young thundering herd.
