you know, there aren't a lot of movies where one of the main characters is named otto that i can think of. airplane's automatic pilot, and a fish called wanda, a truly great comedy that doesn't get enough credit for being a classic.
Arizona +23 @ Oregon - nice revenge spot for uo after last year's shocking 42-16 pasting (ducks were favored by 18.5; a 44+ pt cover... you don't see that often). fwiw both teams are 1-3 ats this year. 23 is a ton of pts to give, but i'm not a believer in ua based on what i've seen to date. oregon
Utah State +21 @ BYU - 3rd straight home game for the cougars, off 2 less than impressive wins over houston and uva. usu was favored last year, maybe for the first time in the 92 year series history, and lost 31-14 when their qb keeton got hurt (and he's banged up now too...missed last week's game). the aggies have never won in provo, but since '08 they are an amazing 18-3-1 when getting 5+ pts. plus their back up qb (garrettson) was 6-1 su last year. byu qb hill is good, but 3 td's is too much in this rivalry. utah st.
Miami -1.5 @ Georgia Tech - canes have won/covered 5 straight in this series, and are off a nice win over overrated duke. i like kaaya, miami's frosh qb, but nerd stat of the week #1 favors the wreck here; rested home dogs w/revenge off a win, vs a .500+ league foe also off a win, are 40-17 ats since 1990. that is a very solid trend. this should be as close as the line, but i like the jackets. ga tech.
Stanford -2 @ Notre Dame - i'm surprised that the trees are favored here, and expect by kickoff to see this line flip. su has won 4 of the last 5, and their d has been as stingy as possible, giving up just 26 pts (2 tds) in 4 games. but they are just 2-5 ats the last 7 as road chalk. nd, meanwhile, (nerd stat alert #2) has scored 30+ pts in their first four games for the first time since ww2. golston is my early favorite for the heisman based on his play to date, and he will be the difference in an otherwise evenly matched game. notre dame.
LSU +7.5 @ Auburn - normally seeing lsu get points would make me reach for my wallet immediately; they've only been a dog twice since '11. and they've had their way w/the boys from the plains, winning 6 of the last 7. but... 9 players off lsu's '13 team were nfl draftees last year, and another 9 were drafted the year before. that is amazing, but it's also nearly impossible to replace. especially up front on d, where wisconsin and miss. st. ran pretty easily. this is also lsu's first true road game of the season. tall order. au is a decent (12-9 since 2010) home favorite, they have revenge (6-0 ats last 6 vs sec in that scenario), malzahn is 14-3 ats vs sec, they're 5-1 ats the last 6 as sec favorites of 10/less. rebuilding year for lsu. war eagle is humming now. auburn.
Oklahoma -5 @ TCU - of all the attractive games this weekend, this may end up topping the list. ou has looked real good early, and they are a real good (11-6) road favorite. but a struggling tcu last year gave the sooners lots of trouble (20-17 final), and the frogs are better now. oklahoma is just 5-13 ats the week before the rrs w/texas, and tcu has been a historically solid (10-4 recently) home dog. plus there are a plethora of trends favoring tcu; home dog w/revenge off a 35+ win (46-25-1), .500+ home dog off 42+ vs opponent off scoring 42+ (25-14-1), .500+ team w/revenge off an ooc shutout win vs league foe (51-21), and a couple more i won't bore you with. i think tcu's run d is good enough to make ou more one dimensional, and that will keep this close to the end. texas christian.
Florida +2.5 @ Tennessee - heightened sense of urgency here for both programs, as the vols fight for renewed sec respect and the gators fight to (it appears) keep their coach. tennessee impressed in their close loss at uga, but the vols are just 3-7 ats as home faves recently. despite getting spanked by the tide, uf is still 4-2 its last 6 getting points on the road. ut remains very young (22 frosh i believe have played this year), and there are a few trends that go against teams who started the season w/2 wins followed by 2 losses. i'm going to take a chance that getting out of gainesville relaxes muschamp and his team. florida.
Alabama -6 @ Mississippi - well, we've seen this before. rebels start the season fast, run into alabama, and reality hits like a hammer rammer jammer. on the surface it looks like a rerun in '14. but... the tide has only covered one of its last 5 games outside tuscaloosa. this is their first true road test and it will be a new qb experiencing it. ua is just 2-5 when favored by 10/less recently. ol' miss is a good home dog (4-1, 5-1 w/sec revenge) lately... wallace just may be the best qb on the field saturday. it's been 10 yrs since the rebs have knocked off alabama, and i think this year they give saban a scare. mississippi.
Texas A&M +1.5 @ Mississippi State - wow what a great cfb saturday in the magnolia state. bulldogs fresh off a great win at lsu and now the unbeaten aggies come to town. prescott is playing like the best qb in sec, but so is hill for a&m. historically the trends don't favor teams as small home favorites off a big road dog win. msu is a solid 10-6 as home chalk, aggies just 2-6 ats getting points on the road of late. but i think a&m is better than lsu. and i'm getting points. i'll take 'em. texas a&m.
Nebraska +7.5 @ Michigan State - unl is 5-0 for the first time since '10 and 2nd time in what seems like forever. w/miller-osu on the shelf, abdullah is clearly the best offensive player in the big 10. huskers can score on offense, but, on d? mcneese st moved the ball all day, miami's frosh qb moved the ball on the blackshirts. sparty is averaging 50 ppg. the last time nebraska played a high profile league night game, osu hung 63 on them. last year unl had 5 turnovers when msu beat them 41-28. they have revenge going for them, but not enough beef on defense. michigan state.
Arizona State +11.5 @ USC - normally, off a devastating loss like asu suffered vs ucla last week, i'd like them as a road dog. but w/qb kelley still banged up, asu not being a good (1-4) road dog, usc having revenge from last year's 62-41 blowout? trojans.
Pitt +6.5 @ Virginia - uva has been one of the nice surprise teams of the year. 3-2, and covered all 4 of their lined games. beat kent st from the mac 45-13 last week. pitt lost to akron from the mac 21-10 last week. a>b>c means cavs in a blow out. right? well, pitt still has a good running game, like byu who beat uva a couple weeks ago. after 3 subpar performances for the panthers, combined w/virginia's ats perfection to date, often those flip for a week. nerd stat alert #3: league away dogs of 6/more, off a 4+ home loss where they were favored by 7+, are 41-11-1 since 1980. i'm 'fillin' pittsburgh, y'uns.
Baylor -16.5 @ Texas - i was going thru my records, trying to find the last time texas was a 17 pt dog at home to an in-state opponent. it must have happened sometime in the past, but i couldn't find it. horns (at least those who are still on the team) have played better recently vs ucla and kansas. there is no doubt who is the better team on both sides of the ball here, though. my question is if baylor, who is just 2-7 the last 9 as road chalk, will look past texas to next week's game w/tcu. don't laugh. nerd stat alert #4; road faves off a -10+ road fave non-cover game are 82-51-1 since 1980. bears aren't looking past texas. baylor
Ohio State -7.5 @ Maryland - i leave tomorrow at 6 am for meetings in dc. wouldn't you know it? osu is playing 10 miles away the next day. what a coincidence! first ever meeting between the two, and first ever big 10 home game for maryland my maryland. terps have been impressive early at 4-1 and their strength (wr's diggs and long) is definitely osu's achilles heel. terps are only 3-5 as home dogs, bucks are 6-0 -17/less vs teams off 2 wins, and 7-1 on the road vs teams off 10+ win. besides the obvious questions for osu's secondary (will we give up 3 60+ yd td passes in a game again?), i'm wondering whether osu's young/improving o-line will continue its upward trend. that's needed on the road. i think the buckeye run game makes the difference. ohio state.
Utah +13 @ UCLA - last year utah outplayed ucla, but their qb threw 6 picks and the bruins escaped with a 34-27 win. ucla is off a 62-27 cruise at arizona st. but... the devils had 627 yards of offense, w/their back up qb, against the ucla defense. hm. ucla is 0-7 at home vs a team w/revenge. hmm. ucla is 0-4 ats prior to playing oregon. hmmm. utah.
k-k-k-k-ken is trying to k-k-k-k-kill me!!
mark scott
tosu 81
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Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
