Post by trnyerheadncough on Oct 1, 2014 15:39:37 GMT -5
"Oh, right! To call you stupid would be an insult to stupid people! I've known sheep that could outwit you. I've worn dresses with higher IQs. But you think you're an intellectual, don't you, ape?"
"Apes don't read philosophy."
"Yes they do, Otto. They just don't understand it. Now let me correct you on a couple of things, OK? Aristotle was not Belgian. The central message of Buddhism is not 'Every man for himself.' And the London Underground is not a political movement. Those are all mistakes, Otto. I looked them up."
Alllll right sports fans. What a huge week we have. Lemme put it to you like this. I started out with 3 columns; "Definites", "Probablys" (or is it probablies?), and "Maybes". I coulda probably had 20-25 games this week, but that's too much work for me. So I pared it down, and ended up only selecting about half of my Probablys to get it down to 15. That's more than enough this week, as I'm sure most of us will be parked on the recliner, in our underwear, eating cheetos. And when I make that comment, I'm referring specifically to the ladies....
On to the games, shall we? We have both a Thursday night and a Friday night game on the list to get everyone excited.
THURSDAY NIGHT GAME
Arizona +23 @ Oregon: The first of several undefeated matchups on the weekend as we go out west to see this PAC 12 matchup. There are only 17 undefeated teams left in college football, and a shitload of them are playing each other this weekend. This is the FIRST one. The Wildcats are 4-0 after pulling off the improbably Hail Mary from a couple of weeks ago to snatch victor from the jaws of defeat against Cal. Oregon is, as usual, one of the big dogs of the conference. However, it cannot be overlooked that Arizona won this game last year by damn near 4 touchdowns. Yeah…by that much.
However, another thing or two that can’t be overlooked…that game last year was a couple of weeks after the Stanford loss, and it was on the road. They are at home in Eugene. And it is a 23 point spread. That is a bunch. When I first was looking at Oregon stats, I was leaning towards taking the Wildcats and the points. Then, looking at Arizona, I’m not so sure. I do see one thing…the lowest points that Arizona has scored all year, is 26. If they only score that amount, does Oregon score 49 to cover? They’ve only done that once this year…against South Dakota. What the hell, the points are tantalizing. Arizona.
FRIDAY NIGHT GAME
Utah State +21 @ BYU: Only one of 2 non-Power 5 giants left standing (the other being Marshall), the Cougars are gliding along at 4-0 and now host the Aggies in an intriguing matchup. Yes, I know that Utah State is 2-2, but honestly should be 3-1 after blowing about 17 opportunities to beat Arkansas State last weekend before losing in overtime. Utah State still has questions about whether Chuckie Keeton can go after banging up his knee against Wake Forest, but even if he can’t, Darrell Garretson didn’t do badly in relief, going 38 for 62 with 3 touchdowns. In the most interesting matchup of the night, Utah Stat is mighty stingy against the run, only giving up a shade over 78 yards a game. BYU rushes for north of 230, but was only able to muster 145 against Virginia. Once again, with home field and what should clearly be the better team, BYU wins this game, but again, that spread is tantalizing. I like Utah State’s rush defense to do juuuuuust enough to keep this game within the same zip code and sneak under the spread. If BYU can only figure out how to win, 35-17…I’m gold. Aggies.
SATURDAY GAMES
Miami -1 ½ @ Georgia Tech: This really comes down to a battle for who has the inside track to the coastal division (although Virginia is still in the hunt). The Canes got a big win against Duke last weekend in a game where the Blue Devils looked like the Duke of old in being completely unable to do much of anything against the Cane defense. Now the Ibises take their show on the road to Atlanta, where Georgia Tech joins Florida State as the only 2 remaining undefeated teams in the ACC. But a closer look shows me that Georgia Tech might be a paper tiger. Yeah, they’re 4-0, but they’ve beaten Wofford, Tulane, Georgia Southern, and Virginia Tech (which is a solid win). In those 4 games, they’ve given up 19, 28, 34, and 24 point respectively. They rank 73rd in total defense.
Miami, on the other hand, has got to be gaining a little momentum after Duke Johnson ran for 155 yards, and the frosh Joseph Yearby ran for 61 (on 9 carries). If the Canes can find some success on the ground, that’ll take some pressure off of Kaaya and make GT work for it, which they have not done well all year. Combine that with the fact that Miami has won the last 5 in a row by an average of more than 2 touchdowns, and none in that span by less than 8. Canes are starting to find their sealegs.
Stanford -2 @ Notre Dame: Ahhh….rivalry game. Plus both teams are ranked. The trees come to Jesus, so to speak, as this matchup takes shape in South Bend. Stanford is quietly at 3-1, with the lone blemish being the debacle against USC back in early September…but at the same time, am I the only one who thinks this isn’t the same Stanford we’re used to seeing? Nevermind losing to USC…losses happen, but the way they lost, and the way they’ve played. They beat Washington by 7, but had 3 turnovers, and turned a botched fake punt by the Huskies into the winning touchdown. They do have the #1 defense in the nation though, and they’re playing real tough. But Notre Dame, with a mobile quarterback presents a different challenge than what I think they’re used to seeing. Notre Dame ain’t been bad on defense either, at least so far as scoring defense goes, only giving up 11 ½ points a game. But that Michigan shutout is looking less and less impressive as the Wolverines slip into oblivion.
Stat that I think makes the difference this weekend? Notre Dame, +4 turnover margin. Stanford, -4. That and Golson’s legs get it done at home. Domers.
LSU +7 ½ @ Auburn: The first of several big games in the SEC this weekend, the Bayou Bengals once again face off against the other Tigers in the SEC…West….Missouri is the Tigers too. Too many Tigers. LSU bounced back as expected and destroyed New Mexico State after losing in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated against Mississippi State. Dak Prescott had a big game against LSU, throwing for 268, running for another 105, and had 3 touchdowns. Not to mention the following: LSU has given up 140 yards on the ground to Melvin Gordon, 197 yards on the ground to Josh Robinson (MSU), 105 yards to Dak Prescott (MSU), and 113 yards to Andrew Allen (NMSU). All on the ground. That’s a bunch of 100 yard rushers, and 2 of them being at quarterback doesn’t give you the warm and fuzzies when Nick Marshall is coming to town.
But that said, Auburn this year without Tre Mason has not been this rushing juggernaut. They’ve been just ok. Cameron Artis-Payne has had some very good moments, and some not so good moments. People point to that K State game to show that Auburn may not be the goods, but I think K State had been working to try to win that game all summer. LSU has owned them as of late, winning 6 of the last 7 and three in a row. But this is an LSU team that is still young and growing up. And early October, the Cajuns aren’t going to be good enough. If this were November 15th, I might think differently, but right now, I’ll take Auburn at home and give up the points….although the half point scares me.
Oklahoma -5 @ TCU: Ooooooooklahoma where the wind comes sweeping down the plains…into Amon G. Carter Stadium to meet up with the horny toads. This is the SECOND matchup of undefeated squads on the weekend. The frogs are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 134-21. Classic matchup. TCU’s defense is #2 in the nation. Oklahoma’s offense is #26, but averages 495 yards a game. For clarification, 495 a game would put the Sooners within the top 15 every single year before now.
Maybe I’m trying to talk myself into this one, but I think the difference maker in this game is Boykin for TCU. A shade under 900 passing yards on the year. 64% through the air. 8 touchdowns with only 1 pick. Throw in another 180 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, and you have a legitimate threat to make some things happen when the play breaks down. 3 out of the last 4 matchups (dating back to 2005) have been decided by a touchdown or less, including the Sooners most recent foray into Ft. Worth, winning 24-17 in 2012. I’ll take the Horny Toads.
Florida +2 ½ @ Tennessee: What was once a clash of titans has now become a pillow fight between stuffed animals. Well, it isn’t quite THAT bad, but when compared to the rest of the games on the list, this one only makes it because of the history involved and it is a rivalry of sorts. Florida this year is Florida last year, sort of. Meaning, incompetence on offense. Kentucky going to triple overtime made ya nervous. Alabama confirmed that the anxiety wasn’t just gas. Jeff Driskell still, for whatever reason, simply can’t get it done. The Gators found a downfield weapon in Demarcus Robinson, but damnit if they still can’t get him the damned football. It is too tough to win if you can’t throw it downfield consistently.
What IS different about the Gators this year is that they aren’t quite as strong on the defensive side of the ball at this point in the year. Hargreaves is elite and can shut down one side of the field. The problem is, on the other side, the Gators are vulnerable, and it showed as Alabama was able to get the ball to their playmakers when VHIII was covering someone else. The Gators are still pretty good against the run, Alabama’s 223 rushing yards notwithstanding.
On the other side, we have a Tennessee squad that, despite currently being 2-2, really don’t look THAT awful. No shame in losing at Oklahoma, and taking Georgia to the wire. The one big advantage the Vols have in this game is that they have 2 receivers who can make plays. The Gators only have one VHIII.
Last year, both of these teams looked awful, combining for only 600 yards of offense, and 9 turnovers. The Gators pulled away down the stretch to win 31-17. This year, the Gators look to be about the same, whereas Tennessee, while young, seems to have some playmakers to do some things. I think Neyland Stadium makes the difference, and the Vols kick a late field goal to seal it. Volunteers.
Alabama -6 @ Mississippi: And this is our THIRD undefeated matchup of the weekend. You know the black bears down in Oxford have been foaming at the mouth for this game. College Gameday. The hated Crimson Tide. A chance to play for a seat at the big boy table. Can Bo Wallace, Tunsil, Nkemdiche, and Treadwell get it done at home for the first time since 2003, and for only the third time this generation???
My thought is….I kinda doubt it. Fact of the matter is, I don’t honestly think that Mississippi is a top 10 squad. Put them in any other conference other than the SEC and give them the same schedule, and they aren’t #10. They’d be ranked, sure…but #10? Here’s a few quick stats. The combined record of Ole Miss’s first 4 opponents? 7-11. Only 2 of the 4 are .500 or better. The halftime score in each of the games against those couple that aren’t completely awful….7-3. That ain’t gonna get it done against the Tide. They don’t run it particularly well, 76th in the nation. They pass it pretty doggone well, but the 4 pass defenses they’ve played to date rank 55, 88, 92, and 102 in the nation defending it.
And yes, the Rebels are #4 in total defense. But that has come against numbers 39, 78, 94, 124 ranked offenses in the nation. Bottom line, while I think Mississippi is a decent football team, they shouldn’t be number 10, they shouldn’t only be a 6 point dog in this battle, and Alabama is going to win this one comfortably.
Texas A&M +1 ½ @ Mississippi State: And this is our FOURTH and final matchup of unbeatens. By the way, I said in a different thread that there were only 17 unbeaten teams left in the nation as of last week. All but 2 (FSU and Marshall) are on the pick’em list. Pretty cool, eh? Eight are playing each other. Three are playing teams with 1 loss (2 of which are dogs to the 1 loss teams). Anyway, I digress…
The Aggies are coming off an emotional overtime win over the game Arkansas Razorbacks, and now they’ve gotta put the chin straps on extra tight and take their show to play the cowbells in Stark Vegas. Before the year began, we thought TAMU would be vulnerable on defense, and although they’re undefeated, they’re still vulnerable on defense, giving up 28 points to both South Carolina and Arkansas.
But they are damned good on offense. Kenny hill has already thrown for over 1700 yards in 5 games. Oh, and 17 touchdowns. That’s a shitload. I guess it shouldn’t come as a shock that the Aggies rank #3 in total offense. But this ain’t your daddy’s Mississippi State squad. Or, well, really your granddaddy’s either. Since 1895, Mississippi State has finished the year ranked in the top 10 exactly…..once. In 1940. Yeah, they’re better than that this year. They’re only ranked #12 right now, but a win would cement them a spot in the top ten for…well…at least a week, considering Auburn comes to town next Saturday. TAMU ain’t got it much better. After the Bulldogs, they play Ole Miss at home before playing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Tough stretch.
Say whatcha want, but I really like State’s squad this year. Balanced on offense. Pretty solid defense. The game against UAB scares me a little, as they gave up 435 passing yards. Considering the quarterback who is lining up behind center that weekend….could mean trouble.
But I think Prescott is too good here. I think he makes enough plays to keep State in the game, and the home field gets it done down the stretch. Bulldogs.
Nebraska +7 ½ @ Michigan State: Haven’t heard much from Sparty after the loss to Oregon, but they’ve quietly won their two games by a combined score of 129-28. Strength against strength….Nebraska and Amir Abdullah are the #3 ranked rushing defense in the nation, going for over 350. Michigan State is #6 defending the run, giving up less than 100 yards a game. Abdullah has run for over 200 yards in each of his last two games, but the Huskers have shown that if you can shut down the run, they’re vulnerable. Against McNeese State, Abdullah was held to 54 yards, and the Huskers needed some late magic to hold on. Shutting down runners is the bread and butter of the Spartans, who have done it to everyone, except arguably Oregon, who went for 173, but a large portion of that was down the stretch when they’d opened up a lead on Michigan State.
Nebraska’s best win so far has been against Miami, and the Canes aren’t that great. Michigan State is still currently the class of the Big 10, and they’ll show it this weekend. Nebraska doesn’t have the horses to score on offense if Michigan State shuts down the run, and Michigan State has figured out how to score. Sparty.
Arizona State +11 ½ @ USC: This game lost a little luster when UCLA handed the Sun Devils their own ass in a 62-27 win last Thursday night. Now they go on the road and face a USC team who is coming off a nice win against Oregon State and Sean Mannion. In fact, Mannion was only 15/32 for 123 yards and 2 picks. For Arizona State, it appears that Taylor Kelly is still questionable for USC, but to be honest, Bercovici didn’t play horribly for ASU, going 42/68 for 488 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 2 picks were costly, one of them being a 95 yard pick six just before half time which would have had the Sun Devils going into half time up 24-20 instead of down, 27-17.
Bottom line though, USC’s pass defense cannot be denied, and I don’t trust ASU’s defense to keep the Trojans down far enough. The Sun Devils haven’t held anyone except Weber State under 23 points, and USC is better than everyone they’ve played except UCLA, which exploded for 62 points. I’ll give up the 11 ½, and take the Trojans.
Pitt +6 ½ @ Virginia: The other game in the ACC which has implications for the Coastal division. The Panthers have dropped two straight after they were poised to crack the top 25, with the most recent being a head scratcher to Akron, who isn’t a bad team at all. Virginia has also lost 2, but those two losses have been competitive games against UCLA and BYU…no shame in either of those. The Coastal is still pretty wide open, as it doesn’t seem like any team is realistically eliminated at this point, except for maybe North Carolina, who was sort of the consensus favorite to with that division (go figure). Virginia plays pretty good defense, and is +5 in turnover margin. They’ve recovered 10 fumbles in 5 games. Fact of the matter is, if Pitt can’t run it, they’re in trouble. Rush for 409 against Delaware State…win. Rush for 303 against BC…win. Rush for 321 against FIU…win. Only rush for 185 against Iowa…close loss. Only rush for 129 against Akron…ugly loss.
Virginia does a good job against the run, and being at home….I like them to win the game by a TD. Cavs.
Baylor -16 ½ @ Texas: It is nearing the end of the day, and I’m getting tired of stats, so these last 3 are gonna be quick. Let’s just say I’m glad I don’t have 20 on the list. I know that Baylor doesn’t like Texas. At all. Texas probably has never given much thought to Baylor until they started kicking their teeth in about 4 years ago. Baylor averages over 56 points a game. Texas averages 21 points a game.
56-21 = 35. Spread is 16 ½. That isn’t going to be enough. Texas has only scored more than 23 once all year, and that was against North Texas. Baylor hasn’t scored less than 45 all year. Baylor.
Ohio State -7 ½ @ Maryland: The Buckeyes have found their groove after the loss to the Hokies in averaging 58 points in their two wins over Kent State and Cincy. Maryland has been fairly steady, with their only loss being to West Virginia, who has thrown it all over everyone this year. This one feels like a shootout maybe, I dunno. End of the day though…I’m tired of picking. I’ll take the Buckeyes because it seems like they’re improving….although being torched multiple times on long passes by Kiel is a bit worrisome.
Utah +13 @ UCLA: Hundley and UCLA seemed to get on track on Thursday, going for 62 points against Arizona State. Utah is 3-1, but that Michigan win is starting to look shaky. Losing to Washington State is also pretty ugly. And now they gotta go to the Rose Bowl? You gotta think that UCLA has gotten it figured out just in time to get to the meat of that schedule, but next weekend, guess who comes to town? Yep. Oregon. Can anyone say trap game? I will. Utah in a close loss.
Good luck all.
"Apes don't read philosophy."
"Yes they do, Otto. They just don't understand it. Now let me correct you on a couple of things, OK? Aristotle was not Belgian. The central message of Buddhism is not 'Every man for himself.' And the London Underground is not a political movement. Those are all mistakes, Otto. I looked them up."
Alllll right sports fans. What a huge week we have. Lemme put it to you like this. I started out with 3 columns; "Definites", "Probablys" (or is it probablies?), and "Maybes". I coulda probably had 20-25 games this week, but that's too much work for me. So I pared it down, and ended up only selecting about half of my Probablys to get it down to 15. That's more than enough this week, as I'm sure most of us will be parked on the recliner, in our underwear, eating cheetos. And when I make that comment, I'm referring specifically to the ladies....
On to the games, shall we? We have both a Thursday night and a Friday night game on the list to get everyone excited.
THURSDAY NIGHT GAME
Arizona +23 @ Oregon: The first of several undefeated matchups on the weekend as we go out west to see this PAC 12 matchup. There are only 17 undefeated teams left in college football, and a shitload of them are playing each other this weekend. This is the FIRST one. The Wildcats are 4-0 after pulling off the improbably Hail Mary from a couple of weeks ago to snatch victor from the jaws of defeat against Cal. Oregon is, as usual, one of the big dogs of the conference. However, it cannot be overlooked that Arizona won this game last year by damn near 4 touchdowns. Yeah…by that much.
However, another thing or two that can’t be overlooked…that game last year was a couple of weeks after the Stanford loss, and it was on the road. They are at home in Eugene. And it is a 23 point spread. That is a bunch. When I first was looking at Oregon stats, I was leaning towards taking the Wildcats and the points. Then, looking at Arizona, I’m not so sure. I do see one thing…the lowest points that Arizona has scored all year, is 26. If they only score that amount, does Oregon score 49 to cover? They’ve only done that once this year…against South Dakota. What the hell, the points are tantalizing. Arizona.
FRIDAY NIGHT GAME
Utah State +21 @ BYU: Only one of 2 non-Power 5 giants left standing (the other being Marshall), the Cougars are gliding along at 4-0 and now host the Aggies in an intriguing matchup. Yes, I know that Utah State is 2-2, but honestly should be 3-1 after blowing about 17 opportunities to beat Arkansas State last weekend before losing in overtime. Utah State still has questions about whether Chuckie Keeton can go after banging up his knee against Wake Forest, but even if he can’t, Darrell Garretson didn’t do badly in relief, going 38 for 62 with 3 touchdowns. In the most interesting matchup of the night, Utah Stat is mighty stingy against the run, only giving up a shade over 78 yards a game. BYU rushes for north of 230, but was only able to muster 145 against Virginia. Once again, with home field and what should clearly be the better team, BYU wins this game, but again, that spread is tantalizing. I like Utah State’s rush defense to do juuuuuust enough to keep this game within the same zip code and sneak under the spread. If BYU can only figure out how to win, 35-17…I’m gold. Aggies.
SATURDAY GAMES
Miami -1 ½ @ Georgia Tech: This really comes down to a battle for who has the inside track to the coastal division (although Virginia is still in the hunt). The Canes got a big win against Duke last weekend in a game where the Blue Devils looked like the Duke of old in being completely unable to do much of anything against the Cane defense. Now the Ibises take their show on the road to Atlanta, where Georgia Tech joins Florida State as the only 2 remaining undefeated teams in the ACC. But a closer look shows me that Georgia Tech might be a paper tiger. Yeah, they’re 4-0, but they’ve beaten Wofford, Tulane, Georgia Southern, and Virginia Tech (which is a solid win). In those 4 games, they’ve given up 19, 28, 34, and 24 point respectively. They rank 73rd in total defense.
Miami, on the other hand, has got to be gaining a little momentum after Duke Johnson ran for 155 yards, and the frosh Joseph Yearby ran for 61 (on 9 carries). If the Canes can find some success on the ground, that’ll take some pressure off of Kaaya and make GT work for it, which they have not done well all year. Combine that with the fact that Miami has won the last 5 in a row by an average of more than 2 touchdowns, and none in that span by less than 8. Canes are starting to find their sealegs.
Stanford -2 @ Notre Dame: Ahhh….rivalry game. Plus both teams are ranked. The trees come to Jesus, so to speak, as this matchup takes shape in South Bend. Stanford is quietly at 3-1, with the lone blemish being the debacle against USC back in early September…but at the same time, am I the only one who thinks this isn’t the same Stanford we’re used to seeing? Nevermind losing to USC…losses happen, but the way they lost, and the way they’ve played. They beat Washington by 7, but had 3 turnovers, and turned a botched fake punt by the Huskies into the winning touchdown. They do have the #1 defense in the nation though, and they’re playing real tough. But Notre Dame, with a mobile quarterback presents a different challenge than what I think they’re used to seeing. Notre Dame ain’t been bad on defense either, at least so far as scoring defense goes, only giving up 11 ½ points a game. But that Michigan shutout is looking less and less impressive as the Wolverines slip into oblivion.
Stat that I think makes the difference this weekend? Notre Dame, +4 turnover margin. Stanford, -4. That and Golson’s legs get it done at home. Domers.
LSU +7 ½ @ Auburn: The first of several big games in the SEC this weekend, the Bayou Bengals once again face off against the other Tigers in the SEC…West….Missouri is the Tigers too. Too many Tigers. LSU bounced back as expected and destroyed New Mexico State after losing in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated against Mississippi State. Dak Prescott had a big game against LSU, throwing for 268, running for another 105, and had 3 touchdowns. Not to mention the following: LSU has given up 140 yards on the ground to Melvin Gordon, 197 yards on the ground to Josh Robinson (MSU), 105 yards to Dak Prescott (MSU), and 113 yards to Andrew Allen (NMSU). All on the ground. That’s a bunch of 100 yard rushers, and 2 of them being at quarterback doesn’t give you the warm and fuzzies when Nick Marshall is coming to town.
But that said, Auburn this year without Tre Mason has not been this rushing juggernaut. They’ve been just ok. Cameron Artis-Payne has had some very good moments, and some not so good moments. People point to that K State game to show that Auburn may not be the goods, but I think K State had been working to try to win that game all summer. LSU has owned them as of late, winning 6 of the last 7 and three in a row. But this is an LSU team that is still young and growing up. And early October, the Cajuns aren’t going to be good enough. If this were November 15th, I might think differently, but right now, I’ll take Auburn at home and give up the points….although the half point scares me.
Oklahoma -5 @ TCU: Ooooooooklahoma where the wind comes sweeping down the plains…into Amon G. Carter Stadium to meet up with the horny toads. This is the SECOND matchup of undefeated squads on the weekend. The frogs are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 134-21. Classic matchup. TCU’s defense is #2 in the nation. Oklahoma’s offense is #26, but averages 495 yards a game. For clarification, 495 a game would put the Sooners within the top 15 every single year before now.
Maybe I’m trying to talk myself into this one, but I think the difference maker in this game is Boykin for TCU. A shade under 900 passing yards on the year. 64% through the air. 8 touchdowns with only 1 pick. Throw in another 180 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, and you have a legitimate threat to make some things happen when the play breaks down. 3 out of the last 4 matchups (dating back to 2005) have been decided by a touchdown or less, including the Sooners most recent foray into Ft. Worth, winning 24-17 in 2012. I’ll take the Horny Toads.
Florida +2 ½ @ Tennessee: What was once a clash of titans has now become a pillow fight between stuffed animals. Well, it isn’t quite THAT bad, but when compared to the rest of the games on the list, this one only makes it because of the history involved and it is a rivalry of sorts. Florida this year is Florida last year, sort of. Meaning, incompetence on offense. Kentucky going to triple overtime made ya nervous. Alabama confirmed that the anxiety wasn’t just gas. Jeff Driskell still, for whatever reason, simply can’t get it done. The Gators found a downfield weapon in Demarcus Robinson, but damnit if they still can’t get him the damned football. It is too tough to win if you can’t throw it downfield consistently.
What IS different about the Gators this year is that they aren’t quite as strong on the defensive side of the ball at this point in the year. Hargreaves is elite and can shut down one side of the field. The problem is, on the other side, the Gators are vulnerable, and it showed as Alabama was able to get the ball to their playmakers when VHIII was covering someone else. The Gators are still pretty good against the run, Alabama’s 223 rushing yards notwithstanding.
On the other side, we have a Tennessee squad that, despite currently being 2-2, really don’t look THAT awful. No shame in losing at Oklahoma, and taking Georgia to the wire. The one big advantage the Vols have in this game is that they have 2 receivers who can make plays. The Gators only have one VHIII.
Last year, both of these teams looked awful, combining for only 600 yards of offense, and 9 turnovers. The Gators pulled away down the stretch to win 31-17. This year, the Gators look to be about the same, whereas Tennessee, while young, seems to have some playmakers to do some things. I think Neyland Stadium makes the difference, and the Vols kick a late field goal to seal it. Volunteers.
Alabama -6 @ Mississippi: And this is our THIRD undefeated matchup of the weekend. You know the black bears down in Oxford have been foaming at the mouth for this game. College Gameday. The hated Crimson Tide. A chance to play for a seat at the big boy table. Can Bo Wallace, Tunsil, Nkemdiche, and Treadwell get it done at home for the first time since 2003, and for only the third time this generation???
My thought is….I kinda doubt it. Fact of the matter is, I don’t honestly think that Mississippi is a top 10 squad. Put them in any other conference other than the SEC and give them the same schedule, and they aren’t #10. They’d be ranked, sure…but #10? Here’s a few quick stats. The combined record of Ole Miss’s first 4 opponents? 7-11. Only 2 of the 4 are .500 or better. The halftime score in each of the games against those couple that aren’t completely awful….7-3. That ain’t gonna get it done against the Tide. They don’t run it particularly well, 76th in the nation. They pass it pretty doggone well, but the 4 pass defenses they’ve played to date rank 55, 88, 92, and 102 in the nation defending it.
And yes, the Rebels are #4 in total defense. But that has come against numbers 39, 78, 94, 124 ranked offenses in the nation. Bottom line, while I think Mississippi is a decent football team, they shouldn’t be number 10, they shouldn’t only be a 6 point dog in this battle, and Alabama is going to win this one comfortably.
Texas A&M +1 ½ @ Mississippi State: And this is our FOURTH and final matchup of unbeatens. By the way, I said in a different thread that there were only 17 unbeaten teams left in the nation as of last week. All but 2 (FSU and Marshall) are on the pick’em list. Pretty cool, eh? Eight are playing each other. Three are playing teams with 1 loss (2 of which are dogs to the 1 loss teams). Anyway, I digress…
The Aggies are coming off an emotional overtime win over the game Arkansas Razorbacks, and now they’ve gotta put the chin straps on extra tight and take their show to play the cowbells in Stark Vegas. Before the year began, we thought TAMU would be vulnerable on defense, and although they’re undefeated, they’re still vulnerable on defense, giving up 28 points to both South Carolina and Arkansas.
But they are damned good on offense. Kenny hill has already thrown for over 1700 yards in 5 games. Oh, and 17 touchdowns. That’s a shitload. I guess it shouldn’t come as a shock that the Aggies rank #3 in total offense. But this ain’t your daddy’s Mississippi State squad. Or, well, really your granddaddy’s either. Since 1895, Mississippi State has finished the year ranked in the top 10 exactly…..once. In 1940. Yeah, they’re better than that this year. They’re only ranked #12 right now, but a win would cement them a spot in the top ten for…well…at least a week, considering Auburn comes to town next Saturday. TAMU ain’t got it much better. After the Bulldogs, they play Ole Miss at home before playing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Tough stretch.
Say whatcha want, but I really like State’s squad this year. Balanced on offense. Pretty solid defense. The game against UAB scares me a little, as they gave up 435 passing yards. Considering the quarterback who is lining up behind center that weekend….could mean trouble.
But I think Prescott is too good here. I think he makes enough plays to keep State in the game, and the home field gets it done down the stretch. Bulldogs.
Nebraska +7 ½ @ Michigan State: Haven’t heard much from Sparty after the loss to Oregon, but they’ve quietly won their two games by a combined score of 129-28. Strength against strength….Nebraska and Amir Abdullah are the #3 ranked rushing defense in the nation, going for over 350. Michigan State is #6 defending the run, giving up less than 100 yards a game. Abdullah has run for over 200 yards in each of his last two games, but the Huskers have shown that if you can shut down the run, they’re vulnerable. Against McNeese State, Abdullah was held to 54 yards, and the Huskers needed some late magic to hold on. Shutting down runners is the bread and butter of the Spartans, who have done it to everyone, except arguably Oregon, who went for 173, but a large portion of that was down the stretch when they’d opened up a lead on Michigan State.
Nebraska’s best win so far has been against Miami, and the Canes aren’t that great. Michigan State is still currently the class of the Big 10, and they’ll show it this weekend. Nebraska doesn’t have the horses to score on offense if Michigan State shuts down the run, and Michigan State has figured out how to score. Sparty.
Arizona State +11 ½ @ USC: This game lost a little luster when UCLA handed the Sun Devils their own ass in a 62-27 win last Thursday night. Now they go on the road and face a USC team who is coming off a nice win against Oregon State and Sean Mannion. In fact, Mannion was only 15/32 for 123 yards and 2 picks. For Arizona State, it appears that Taylor Kelly is still questionable for USC, but to be honest, Bercovici didn’t play horribly for ASU, going 42/68 for 488 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 2 picks were costly, one of them being a 95 yard pick six just before half time which would have had the Sun Devils going into half time up 24-20 instead of down, 27-17.
Bottom line though, USC’s pass defense cannot be denied, and I don’t trust ASU’s defense to keep the Trojans down far enough. The Sun Devils haven’t held anyone except Weber State under 23 points, and USC is better than everyone they’ve played except UCLA, which exploded for 62 points. I’ll give up the 11 ½, and take the Trojans.
Pitt +6 ½ @ Virginia: The other game in the ACC which has implications for the Coastal division. The Panthers have dropped two straight after they were poised to crack the top 25, with the most recent being a head scratcher to Akron, who isn’t a bad team at all. Virginia has also lost 2, but those two losses have been competitive games against UCLA and BYU…no shame in either of those. The Coastal is still pretty wide open, as it doesn’t seem like any team is realistically eliminated at this point, except for maybe North Carolina, who was sort of the consensus favorite to with that division (go figure). Virginia plays pretty good defense, and is +5 in turnover margin. They’ve recovered 10 fumbles in 5 games. Fact of the matter is, if Pitt can’t run it, they’re in trouble. Rush for 409 against Delaware State…win. Rush for 303 against BC…win. Rush for 321 against FIU…win. Only rush for 185 against Iowa…close loss. Only rush for 129 against Akron…ugly loss.
Virginia does a good job against the run, and being at home….I like them to win the game by a TD. Cavs.
Baylor -16 ½ @ Texas: It is nearing the end of the day, and I’m getting tired of stats, so these last 3 are gonna be quick. Let’s just say I’m glad I don’t have 20 on the list. I know that Baylor doesn’t like Texas. At all. Texas probably has never given much thought to Baylor until they started kicking their teeth in about 4 years ago. Baylor averages over 56 points a game. Texas averages 21 points a game.
56-21 = 35. Spread is 16 ½. That isn’t going to be enough. Texas has only scored more than 23 once all year, and that was against North Texas. Baylor hasn’t scored less than 45 all year. Baylor.
Ohio State -7 ½ @ Maryland: The Buckeyes have found their groove after the loss to the Hokies in averaging 58 points in their two wins over Kent State and Cincy. Maryland has been fairly steady, with their only loss being to West Virginia, who has thrown it all over everyone this year. This one feels like a shootout maybe, I dunno. End of the day though…I’m tired of picking. I’ll take the Buckeyes because it seems like they’re improving….although being torched multiple times on long passes by Kiel is a bit worrisome.
Utah +13 @ UCLA: Hundley and UCLA seemed to get on track on Thursday, going for 62 points against Arizona State. Utah is 3-1, but that Michigan win is starting to look shaky. Losing to Washington State is also pretty ugly. And now they gotta go to the Rose Bowl? You gotta think that UCLA has gotten it figured out just in time to get to the meat of that schedule, but next weekend, guess who comes to town? Yep. Oregon. Can anyone say trap game? I will. Utah in a close loss.
Good luck all.
