WEEK 6 OFFICIAL SCHEDULE

[cyberobb99]

Oct 3, 2018 21:47:39 GMT -5 Walter said:

Oct 3, 2018 18:59:37 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

fwiw 2 td point spreads are not necessarily bad. tosu’s game w tcu was -13.5.

I get that, but both teams were playing well, so there was a question about whether TCU would step up.
FSU as an example, has more or less stunk up the joint, ESPECIALLY on the road.
Now, I do not mind that, and even relished the idea as they headed into Syracuse and the line begged the Q. To me, that there is interesting.
But going into UM? Not quite the same scenario, IMO.
Again, this gets to a board preference.
Does the board want, for instance, USC/UCLA if the Bruins are 2-8 and a 20 point dog?
I will go there if that is the preference because it is a rivalry game, but to me... meh...
..and if the Bruins stink but get a back door cover late after the Trojans put in the scout team, does that somehow validate the pick as an interesting game?
I say no.
What say you all?

First, as the former host of a Pick 'Em game, I know how tough it is to consistently pick interesting matchups. I'm not inclined to criticize your choices at all. I rarely have a complaint about your choices. A game like Miami/FSU IS interesting, in spite of FSU's poor play, because they certainly have enough talent to do MUCH better and a rivalry game might be just the tonic for their malaise. On the other hand, VT/UVa has seen Tech with a 14 game win streak and generally are hurting for talent. Not that interesting to anyone other than Hokie or Hoo fans. So, I'll accept your judgement on that.

[cbisbig]

Oct 3, 2018 21:47:39 GMT -5 Walter said:

Oct 3, 2018 18:59:37 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

fwiw 2 td point spreads are not necessarily bad. tosu’s game w tcu was -13.5.

I get that, but both teams were playing well, so there was a question about whether TCU would step up.
FSU as an example, has more or less stunk up the joint, ESPECIALLY on the road.
Now, I do not mind that, and even relished the idea as they headed into Syracuse and the line begged the Q. To me, that there is interesting.
But going into UM? Not quite the same scenario, IMO.
Again, this gets to a board preference.
Does the board want, for instance, USC/UCLA if the Bruins are 2-8 and a 20 point dog?
I will go there if that is the preference because it is a rivalry game, but to me... meh...
..and if the Bruins stink but get a back door cover late after the Trojans put in the scout team, does that somehow validate the pick as an interesting game?
I say no.
What say you all?

Rivalry games present an interesting challenge. Records usually don't matter.

[oujour76]

Oct 4, 2018 9:20:15 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

Oct 3, 2018 21:47:39 GMT -5 Walter said:

I get that, but both teams were playing well, so there was a question about whether TCU would step up.
FSU as an example, has more or less stunk up the joint, ESPECIALLY on the road.
Now, I do not mind that, and even relished the idea as they headed into Syracuse and the line begged the Q. To me, that there is interesting.
But going into UM? Not quite the same scenario, IMO.
Again, this gets to a board preference.
Does the board want, for instance, USC/UCLA if the Bruins are 2-8 and a 20 point dog?
I will go there if that is the preference because it is a rivalry game, but to me... meh...
..and if the Bruins stink but get a back door cover late after the Trojans put in the scout team, does that somehow validate the pick as an interesting game?
I say no.
What say you all?

i say....

1. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks, and what you think, goes.
2. you do ask for input from the group, so we don't have any ground to stand on if we don't speak up.
3. i do like see the marquis rivalries represented on the list, and since the 80s fsu-miami certainly qualifies, but ....
4. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks. i'm very appreciative that you are managing this again this fall, so the bottom line is simply, thanks.

What Mark said.

[Deleted]

Here's an idea which may seem stupid at first.

Granted, I'm not a player, but I see the difficulty everyone is having with agreeing on the games, so consider this:

Pick your own games.

Everyone gets to pick his own 15 (or some agreed upon number of) games, then after the weekend, tally up who had the best win percentage.

The games won't matter to others, then. If an OSU fan wants to bet on his own team every week he can. So can fans of every other team. 

Let's say I were playing, and I wanted to bet on every LA team playing this weekend.  I could, and then fill my allotment with other games of my choosing.

The only rule would be that the games and lines are all chosen from one betting source so that the lines all agree.

[Deleted]

Oct 4, 2018 19:24:41 GMT -5 @muttthemaster said:

Here's an idea which may seem stupid at first.

Granted, I'm not a player, but I see the difficulty everyone is having with agreeing on the games, so consider this:

Pick your own games.

Everyone gets to pick his own 15 (or some agreed upon number of) games, then after the weekend, tally up who had the best win percentage.

The games won't matter to others, then. If an OSU fan wants to bet on his own team every week he can. So can fans of every other team. 

Let's say I were playing, and I wanted to bet on every LA team playing this weekend.  I could, and then fill my allotment with other games of my choosing.

The only rule would be that the games and lines are all chosen from one betting source so that the lines all agree.

We keep score so 15 different sets of games would create a pile of work for the operator. 

[Deleted]

Oct 4, 2018 19:45:04 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Oct 4, 2018 19:24:41 GMT -5 @muttthemaster said:

Here's an idea which may seem stupid at first.

Granted, I'm not a player, but I see the difficulty everyone is having with agreeing on the games, so consider this:

Pick your own games.

Everyone gets to pick his own 15 (or some agreed upon number of) games, then after the weekend, tally up who had the best win percentage.

The games won't matter to others, then. If an OSU fan wants to bet on his own team every week he can. So can fans of every other team. 

Let's say I were playing, and I wanted to bet on every LA team playing this weekend.  I could, and then fill my allotment with other games of my choosing.

The only rule would be that the games and lines are all chosen from one betting source so that the lines all agree.

We keep score so 15 different sets of games would create a pile of work for the operator. 

No honor among thieves?

Self-report your own win %.

It's easy to check if you are challenged.

[daleko]

FRIDAY
UTAH ST +2.5
SATURDAY
AUBURN -3.5
SYRACUSE -3.5
TEXAS A&M -5.5
ARIZONA +2.5
LSU -2.5
NOTRE DAME -6
NAVY -3.5
NC STATE -4.5
STANFORD -5
MINNESOTA +7
MISSOURI +1
COLORADO -3
CLEMSON +18
OKLAHOMA -8 

[AlaCowboy]

Oct 4, 2018 18:46:03 GMT -5 oujour76 said:

Oct 4, 2018 9:20:15 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

i say....

1. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks, and what you think, goes.
2. you do ask for input from the group, so we don't have any ground to stand on if we don't speak up.
3. i do like see the marquis rivalries represented on the list, and since the 80s fsu-miami certainly qualifies, but ....
4. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks. i'm very appreciative that you are managing this again this fall, so the bottom line is simply, thanks.

What Mark said.

Same here. Rivalry games matter, sometimes. Usually end of year games or cutthroat games like WLOCP (Georgia v Florida, for you outcasts). ND v USC, for instance.
I would like to see a MAC or AAC matchup occasionally.

[AlaCowboy]

BYU (no matter where they play the game)

Auburn

Syracuse

aTm

Cal

Florida

ND

Navy

NC State

StainedFart

Minnehaha

Mizzou (I think they run well and Lock lights up the USCe secondary)

Colorado

Clemson

Oklahoma

[drjensen]

Just put em out every week, no input from us and let us pick who we think will cover. KISS.

[oujour76]

Utah State
Auburn
Syracuse
aTm
Cal
Florida
Notre Dame
Air Force
NC State
Utah
Minnesota
South Carolina
Colorado
Clemson
OU

[Walter]

Oct 4, 2018 18:46:03 GMT -5 oujour76 said:

Oct 4, 2018 9:20:15 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

i say....

1. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks, and what you think, goes.
2. you do ask for input from the group, so we don't have any ground to stand on if we don't speak up.
3. i do like see the marquis rivalries represented on the list, and since the 80s fsu-miami certainly qualifies, but ....
4. you are the grand pooh bah of the weekly picks. i'm very appreciative that you are managing this again this fall, so the bottom line is simply, thanks.

What Mark said.

I disagree.
I have ideas about what interests me, but this is a board run by members, so my ideas are not terribly relevant. I am inclined to agree with Trn on this for the simple reason that game interest trumps good matchups.
I think I am wrong.
To use an extreme example, if Squidunk Tech plays Podunk Tech in a game with great consequence to the D3 championship, but nobody on the board cares, is it a game worth putting it on the list?
I had particular interest in Syracuse, coming off the game with Clemson, and Pitt coming off their game, about which team would prevail.
BUT...
If the board is more interested in traditional rivalry games, why should we not go with the more popular game?
Now, IMO, FSU will get smoked and the game holds little interest for me. But I am one of the worst pickers on the board, so what do I know?
Bottom line, the tournament should be about what is of the most interest, not what may be the better game on the field.
That is not what I was using as my guiding light.
The board needs to tell me how you want this.
To use a personal interest, if USC is 8-2 and is a 20 pt fav over the 2-8 Bruins, is that a game y'all want to pick because it is a rivalry game? OR..do you want to pick a 3 pt spread between a regional but less notable rivalry between Utah St and BYU?

[oujour76]

Oct 4, 2018 22:43:50 GMT -5 Walter said:

Oct 4, 2018 18:46:03 GMT -5 oujour76 said:

What Mark said.

I disagree.
I have ideas about what interests me, but this is a board run by members, so my ideas are not terribly relevant. I am inclined to agree with Trn on this for the simple reason that game interest trumps good matchups.
I think I am wrong.
To use an extreme example, if Squidunk Tech plays Podunk Tech in a game with great consequence to the D3 championship, but nobody on the board cares, is it a game worth putting it on the list?
I had particular interest in Syracuse, coming off the game with Clemson, and Pitt coming off their game, about which team would prevail.
BUT...
If the board is more interested in traditional rivalry games, why should we not go with the more popular game?
Now, IMO, FSU will get smoked and the game holds little interest for me. But I am one of the worst pickers on the board, so what do I know?
Bottom line, the tournament should be about what is of the most interest, not what may be the better game on the field.
That is not what I was using as my guiding light.
The board needs to tell me how you want this.
To use a personal interest, if USC is 8-2 and is a 20 pt fav over the 2-8 Bruins, is that a game y'all want to pick because it is a rivalry game? OR..do you want to pick a 3 pt spread between a regional but less notable rivalry between Utah St and BYU?

Again, what Mark said...it's your show and you can handle as you please. I'm fine with the format as is. If you decide to change, will be fine with that as well.

[Deleted]

Walter: "Now, IMO, FSU will get smoked and the game holds little interest for me. But I am one of the worst pickers on the board, so what do I know?"

You should have had the opportunity to miss the pick. I would have confidently taken FSU and the 13 points. This is a rivalry game where you can usually throw out the records and the outcomes are closer more often than not.

Miami ain't a powerhouse team. The candy canes got smoked by LSU in Arlington and then have 4 wins against Savannah State, Toledo, Florida International, and North Carolina. That's a real murders row to base a decision on that they are capable of smoking FSU.

With the talent that FSU has, the nolies could find a groove at any time. I'm expecting a very good game in Miami. It wouldn't shock me if FSU wins straight up.

[mscott59]

UTAH ST AT BYU -2.5
cougars off a physical beating at washington 7-35, being held to just 194 yds in offense, while usu is off a bye. last yr the aggies were outgained 418-297 and were down 21-7 before 6 byu turnovers turned the game, winning 40-24. normally I'd take revenge and a bounce back from the uw loss, but usu has had an extra week of prep (7-1 ats off a bye), they return 18 starters from '17, I watched them give sparty all they could handle in week 1 before losing 38-31, + usu is 4-1 ats the last 5 in this series in provo. utah state.

AUBURN AT MISSISSIPPI ST +3.5
a year ago war eagle blasted msu 49-10, catching them off games vs lsu/uga. not sure if uk/uf is in the same category, but the bulldogs have scored just 13 pts total the last 2 weeks, gaining only 403 yds on offense, and auburn's d is just as good imho. 1st true road game for the tigers, who are 5-2 as away favorites lately, but 2-5 su/ats in their 1st road affair of the season. I'll take a chance that msu coach moorhead's offense won't struggle 3 games in a row, and that 0.5 might come in handy. mississippi state.

SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH +3.5
'cuse a road favorite after nearly stealing last week's game at clemson. but now the orange is a road favorite for just the 5th time since the end of 2012. pitt is off 2 bad road losses (unc, ucf) but the panthers are 13-3 su/11-5 ats in this series. I think they're due, and after covering all 5 games so far this year, syracuse is due for an off day. pittsburgh.

KENTUCKY AT TEXAS A&M -5.5
2 top rb's in the sec here, snell for uk and williams for a&m as the cats travel to college station for the 1st time to play a league game. aggies struggled last week vs arkansas, but uk kept rolling thanks to a defense that's allowing 12 ppg. and I like unbeaten teams getting points. a&m may win but I'll take kentucky to cover.

CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA +2.5
cal has lost 4 straight to 'zona, but covered all 4. last week the bears played oregon pretty even, except for 5 turnovers, which has a tendency to make games uneven. wildcats came back against usc to make it close, but qb khalil tate continues to struggle while trying to recover from a bum ankle. cal is a decent 12-10 ats as road dogs of late, while ua is just 9-20-1 ats vs pac 12 opponents. california.

more later...

LSU AT FLORIDA +2.5
2nd straight yr for this matchup at the swamp. last season a missed xp gave the tigers a 17-16 win and sent uf on a 5 game losing streak. 2 real good defenses, 2 offenses who'd rather run 1st and pass 2nd. lsu qb joe burrow will be up against a uf secondary that's allowing just 41% completions the last 2 games. on the other side felipe franks has been solid. the technical trends favor the gators; they're 20-4-1 ats w/sec revenge off a su/ats win, and 5-0 road favorites off a win, vs an opponent w/revenge, are just 21-40-2 ats since '80. florida.

NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA TECH +6
ian book's emergence at qb has ignited the irish offense the last couple weeks. the hokies bounced back from a shocking loss to odu w/an upset win at duke behind backup qb ryan willis, after josh suffered a broken leg. willis threw for 332 w/3 td's and no picks. notre dame's d will be a lot tougher; they've already held michigan, stanford and wake forest to season low outputs on offense. but nd also fits for that 5-0 road favorite stat (w/o the league revenge factor, those teams are 146-186-5 ats), and vt is 11-3 ats the last 14 times it's been a home dog. they;'re also 48-3 su at home vs ooc opponents, and only one of those 3 losses was by more than a td (vs tosu in '15)... virginia tech.

more later

NAVY AT AIR FORCE +3.5
middies come in off a bye following a 31-30 loss at smu. the falcons are 0-3 su vs fbs foes this year, oiutgained in all 3 games as well. flyboys are 5-1 as home dogs, tho, and the home team has won 5 straight in the series. air force

BOSTON COLLEGE AT NC STATE -4.5
pretty big acc matchup between 4-1 bc and 4-0 ncsu. visitor has won 4 straight in the series, eagles are a money-making 10-2 ats getting points on the road, and 7-0 ats w/revenge. rb a.j. dillon had 161 yds rushing in 2 1/2 qtrs last week before hurting his ankle, and he's still iffy for saturday, but his replacement ben glines came in and ran for 120, behind an o-line who all returns from last year. wolfpack has played great this year, covering all 4 games, but w/a more inexperienced front on defense I think this one is close. boston college.

UTAH AT STANFORD -5
cardinal got outgunned 550-229, outscored 38-17, and saw star rb bryce love reinjure his ankle last week at notre dame. utah's stingy defense looked leaky in a 28-24 loss to washington state. utes are real good as road dogs (10-2 ats) lately, and w/love's status in limbo... utah.

IOWA AT MINNESOTA +7
hawkeyes in position to win 'floyd of rosedale' for a 5th straight year. both teams had an extra week to stew over losses. Iowa is a heady 13-2 ats as road chalk, but the gophers are 8-0 ats as home dogs w/a winning record. even though the last 3 in the series have been decided by 7/less, and the hawks are traveling for the 1st time this season, minnesota gave up 300+ rushing to maryland 2 weeks ago. not promising. iowa.

MISSOURI AT SOUTH CAROLINA -1
their d is not so hot, but mizzou so far this year is putting up an average of 206 yards more than their 5 opponents allow on average. usc-e's defense is good up front, bad in the backline. tigers have covered 10 of their last 12 games... missouri.

ARIZONA ST. AT COLORADO -3
asu has knocked off the buffalos in 8 of the last 9 games, but in the past 4 yrs the sun devils are 4-13 su away from tempe, while cu has won 10 of its last 13 games in boulder. colorado.

CLEMSON AT WAKE FOREST +18
frosh qb trevor lawrence, I hear, should return for the tigers, but if dabo is smart he'll feed rb etienne who ran for 203 yds to spark the comeback win over syracuse. but that 5-0 road favorite stat (see lsu) vs revenge applies here as well (wake is 9-0 ats the last 9 times seeking acc revenge), and they're 6-0 ats getting 10+ at home while clemson is 0-9 ats as road chalk of 18+. wake forest.

TEXAS VS OKLAHOMA -8
1st time in a decade, it seems, that the 'horns enter the red river shootout w/some national relevance. will they leave dallas that way? sooners fall in the same 5-0 road favorite vs revenge category (ok, it's a neutral site) and ou is a curious 4-11 ats when coming into this game off an ats win. the last 4 in this series have been decided by less than a td, and tom herman is 11-1 ats getting points as a head coach. texas.


bonus pick... florida state +13 at miami fl.
canes' blowout win vs unc was fueled by 3 defensive td's, so I think this line is a little inflated. noles' d is still pretty good. we know miami's d is pretty good. but fsu has won the last in this series played in south florida. florida state.