UTAH ST AT BYU -2.5
cougars off a physical beating at washington 7-35, being held to just 194 yds in offense, while usu is off a bye. last yr the aggies were outgained 418-297 and were down 21-7 before 6 byu turnovers turned the game, winning 40-24. normally I'd take revenge and a bounce back from the uw loss, but usu has had an extra week of prep (7-1 ats off a bye), they return 18 starters from '17, I watched them give sparty all they could handle in week 1 before losing 38-31, + usu is 4-1 ats the last 5 in this series in provo. utah state.
AUBURN AT MISSISSIPPI ST +3.5
a year ago war eagle blasted msu 49-10, catching them off games vs lsu/uga. not sure if uk/uf is in the same category, but the bulldogs have scored just 13 pts total the last 2 weeks, gaining only 403 yds on offense, and auburn's d is just as good imho. 1st true road game for the tigers, who are 5-2 as away favorites lately, but 2-5 su/ats in their 1st road affair of the season. I'll take a chance that msu coach moorhead's offense won't struggle 3 games in a row, and that 0.5 might come in handy. mississippi state.
SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH +3.5
'cuse a road favorite after nearly stealing last week's game at clemson. but now the orange is a road favorite for just the 5th time since the end of 2012. pitt is off 2 bad road losses (unc, ucf) but the panthers are 13-3 su/11-5 ats in this series. I think they're due, and after covering all 5 games so far this year, syracuse is due for an off day. pittsburgh.
KENTUCKY AT TEXAS A&M -5.5
2 top rb's in the sec here, snell for uk and williams for a&m as the cats travel to college station for the 1st time to play a league game. aggies struggled last week vs arkansas, but uk kept rolling thanks to a defense that's allowing 12 ppg. and I like unbeaten teams getting points. a&m may win but I'll take kentucky to cover.
CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA +2.5
cal has lost 4 straight to 'zona, but covered all 4. last week the bears played oregon pretty even, except for 5 turnovers, which has a tendency to make games uneven. wildcats came back against usc to make it close, but qb khalil tate continues to struggle while trying to recover from a bum ankle. cal is a decent 12-10 ats as road dogs of late, while ua is just 9-20-1 ats vs pac 12 opponents. california.
more later...
LSU AT FLORIDA +2.5
2nd straight yr for this matchup at the swamp. last season a missed xp gave the tigers a 17-16 win and sent uf on a 5 game losing streak. 2 real good defenses, 2 offenses who'd rather run 1st and pass 2nd. lsu qb joe burrow will be up against a uf secondary that's allowing just 41% completions the last 2 games. on the other side felipe franks has been solid. the technical trends favor the gators; they're 20-4-1 ats w/sec revenge off a su/ats win, and 5-0 road favorites off a win, vs an opponent w/revenge, are just 21-40-2 ats since '80. florida.
NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA TECH +6
ian book's emergence at qb has ignited the irish offense the last couple weeks. the hokies bounced back from a shocking loss to odu w/an upset win at duke behind backup qb ryan willis, after josh suffered a broken leg. willis threw for 332 w/3 td's and no picks. notre dame's d will be a lot tougher; they've already held michigan, stanford and wake forest to season low outputs on offense. but nd also fits for that 5-0 road favorite stat (w/o the league revenge factor, those teams are 146-186-5 ats), and vt is 11-3 ats the last 14 times it's been a home dog. they;'re also 48-3 su at home vs ooc opponents, and only one of those 3 losses was by more than a td (vs tosu in '15)... virginia tech.
more later
NAVY AT AIR FORCE +3.5
middies come in off a bye following a 31-30 loss at smu. the falcons are 0-3 su vs fbs foes this year, oiutgained in all 3 games as well. flyboys are 5-1 as home dogs, tho, and the home team has won 5 straight in the series. air force
BOSTON COLLEGE AT NC STATE -4.5
pretty big acc matchup between 4-1 bc and 4-0 ncsu. visitor has won 4 straight in the series, eagles are a money-making 10-2 ats getting points on the road, and 7-0 ats w/revenge. rb a.j. dillon had 161 yds rushing in 2 1/2 qtrs last week before hurting his ankle, and he's still iffy for saturday, but his replacement ben glines came in and ran for 120, behind an o-line who all returns from last year. wolfpack has played great this year, covering all 4 games, but w/a more inexperienced front on defense I think this one is close. boston college.
UTAH AT STANFORD -5
cardinal got outgunned 550-229, outscored 38-17, and saw star rb bryce love reinjure his ankle last week at notre dame. utah's stingy defense looked leaky in a 28-24 loss to washington state. utes are real good as road dogs (10-2 ats) lately, and w/love's status in limbo... utah.
IOWA AT MINNESOTA +7
hawkeyes in position to win 'floyd of rosedale' for a 5th straight year. both teams had an extra week to stew over losses. Iowa is a heady 13-2 ats as road chalk, but the gophers are 8-0 ats as home dogs w/a winning record. even though the last 3 in the series have been decided by 7/less, and the hawks are traveling for the 1st time this season, minnesota gave up 300+ rushing to maryland 2 weeks ago. not promising. iowa.
MISSOURI AT SOUTH CAROLINA -1
their d is not so hot, but mizzou so far this year is putting up an average of 206 yards more than their 5 opponents allow on average. usc-e's defense is good up front, bad in the backline. tigers have covered 10 of their last 12 games... missouri.
ARIZONA ST. AT COLORADO -3
asu has knocked off the buffalos in 8 of the last 9 games, but in the past 4 yrs the sun devils are 4-13 su away from tempe, while cu has won 10 of its last 13 games in boulder. colorado.
CLEMSON AT WAKE FOREST +18
frosh qb trevor lawrence, I hear, should return for the tigers, but if dabo is smart he'll feed rb etienne who ran for 203 yds to spark the comeback win over syracuse. but that 5-0 road favorite stat (see lsu) vs revenge applies here as well (wake is 9-0 ats the last 9 times seeking acc revenge), and they're 6-0 ats getting 10+ at home while clemson is 0-9 ats as road chalk of 18+. wake forest.
TEXAS VS OKLAHOMA -8
1st time in a decade, it seems, that the 'horns enter the red river shootout w/some national relevance. will they leave dallas that way? sooners fall in the same 5-0 road favorite vs revenge category (ok, it's a neutral site) and ou is a curious 4-11 ats when coming into this game off an ats win. the last 4 in this series have been decided by less than a td, and tom herman is 11-1 ats getting points as a head coach. texas.
bonus pick... florida state +13 at miami fl.
canes' blowout win vs unc was fueled by 3 defensive td's, so I think this line is a little inflated. noles' d is still pretty good. we know miami's d is pretty good. but fsu has won the last in this series played in south florida. florida state.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
