This courtesy of GatorMaj, no I didn't ask him for permission to use, over at Gator Country where he goes by the handle Wormwood. Based on said information, I'd say UF will go 10-2 or better next season. If Will Muschamp pulls a 7-5 or 8-4 season in 2014, he would rightfully be on the hot seat for mismanaging a loaded roster that should be highly successful:
Florida Full Strength vs Depleted
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The hysteria around here is mind-boggling. Florida's program has been strong for over 30 years now, and a definite pattern has developed.
When Florida has fewer than 12 new starters:
Year---------------W/L - bowl game
1983...........................8-2-1
1984...........................9-1-1
1985...........................9-1-1
1990...........................9-2-0
1991.........................10-1-0
1993.........................10-2-0
1994.........................10-1-1
1995.........................12-0-0
1996.........................11-1-0
1997...........................9-2-0
1998...........................9-2-0
2000.........................10-2-0
2001...........................9-2-0
2005...........................8-3-0
2006.........................12-1-0
2008.........................12-1-0
2009.........................12-1-0
2012.........................11-1-0
When Florida either has 12 or more new starters or plays on an unlevel playing field due to sanctions:
Year---------------W/L - bowl game
1986...........................6-5-0
1987...........................6-5-0
1988...........................6-5-0
1989...........................7-4-0
1992...........................8-4-0
1999...........................9-3-0
2002...........................8-4-0
2003...........................8-4-0
2004...........................7-4-0
2007...........................9-3-0
2010...........................7-5-0
2011...........................6-6-0
2013...........................?-?-?
The WORST year we had when the team was at full strength was 2005, with an 8-3 record. The reason for this was, IMO, Meyer's dogged insistance to institute the spread option offense to players completely unsuited for it.
Every other year, we lost two or fewer games. How many other teams can say this, over this period of time? You could probably count them on the fingers of one hand and have a couple of fingers left over.
When we struggle with a dozen or more new starters or have sanctions levied on us that deprived us of talent, combined with inevitable injury issues, however, we struggle.
Anyone who realizes this should have expected an 8-4 season this year, and possibly worse if we had key injuries. It is an a priori fact.
For all of you that want to hang the head coach for struggling this year, take note that Galen Hall, Steve Spurrier, Ron Zook and Urban Meyer couldn't have seasons with fewer than 3 losses under the circumstances Muschamp is working under in 2011 and this year.
Experienced talent is more critical to success than raw 5-star talent out of high school, or coaching, for that matter.
If Steve Spurrier couldn't do better than 8-4 with an outstanding senior quarterback in 1992, or Urban Meyer couldn't do better than 9-3 with the freaking Heisman Trophy winner at QB (compare Florida in 2007 with Auburn in 2010 and Texas A&M in 2012), then why should Muschamp be expected to field a strong team THIS year.
I fully realize that it isn't just the W/L column that strikes fear in Gator hearts. The offense is truly hideous. We may finish 6-6 or 7-5 again, but it isn't because of Muschamp's poor coaching. Although it seems to some that we won with smoke and mirrors in 2012, the 2012 season was one of our STRONGEST 1-loss seasons, as we beat four teams with ten+ wins.
Year-------------W/L Record vs Teams with 10+ wins - bowl games
2012...............................4-1
2009...............................0-1
2008...............................2-0
2006...............................2-1
1996...............................3-1
1995...............................2-0
1985...............................1-0
1984...............................0-0
For all of you that want to throw Muschamp under the bus and believe that we wouldn't have done any better if he didn't have the problems he had, well, you are ignorinig history. Granted, if he goes 6-6 again, he would have done worse than Hall, SOS, Zook and Meyer when they were saddled with the same constraints. A losing record would be alarming.
But I would cut him some slack for this year with all the losses. Looking at the roster, we look to lose only 5 starters in 2014. Given the 30 year history of Florida, losing 5 starters would give us that 10-2 record that many have come to expect, and Muschamp will STILL be the coach.
So be of good cheer! We haven't hit bottom. Not even CLOSE...