Will Bitem Start a War With Russia?

[daleko]

Nov 19, 2024 19:56:44 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 19, 2024 16:14:02 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Seems like the notion of Russia beating the shit out of Ukraine in short order is belied by the fact that, here we are, a couple of years later, and Russia is needing new weapons and troops from geopolitical allies to fight the battle further.

Only because Ukraine has been getting weapons from the U.S. to keep them going.
Now that Russia is getting more weapons from ITS allies, this thing is going to continue to drag out.

Well hopefully it doesn't drag out as long as the Persian-Roman Wars, which lasted 721 years or the war between the Moors and the Spanish Empire, which lasted 781 years (7 million killed).

Conflict has long been a tool of State, when non-violent Statecraft doesn't deliver  and since the 18 century, in the West anyway, assassination (the third tool of Statecraft, was not embraced.

Even today, the Kashmir Conflict, India V Pakistan, is in it's 77th year; the Karen Conflict (Not the one being fought in Cali between the Pubs and the Dems, being fought in Myanmar is in its 75 yr; though the U.S. military is no longer in an active armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, there was never an official peace treaty signed between North Korea and South Korea, so the countries are still technically at war. 74 years and counting. 

History suggests there is no guarantee this returns to normal any time soon, if ever. Maybe money enters into it, maybe not. If enough people die, the conflict may just get smaller in scope.

[canefan]

Nov 20, 2024 11:10:13 GMT -5 Panama pfRedd said:

Nov 20, 2024 7:14:45 GMT -5 canefan said:

Way back in he late 90's we had Sonic expand into Winter Haven. They opened a location across the street from our office building so it was quickly a favorite for us to grab lunch on busy days. My first time through the drive through I was happy to discover they had, I can't remember what they called it, but what was called a "frito pie" at A & W when we were kids. A bag of fritos cut down the side and filled with chili and onions. I got that four or five times he first several weeks they were open and then the bastards took it off the menu.

What about 5 Guys and The Habit?

The first Five Guys I saw was in Orlando maybe 2012 or so. They are okay. Don't know "The Habit." Our, my wife and I, personal favorite for a franchise burger place is Culver's out of Wisconsin. But if I really want a great burger we head over to New Smyrna Beach to a place right on the beach called The Breakers. Great burgers.

[dilligaf]

Nov 20, 2024 7:22:55 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Nov 20, 2024 0:33:43 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Where are you getting your numbers from?

The United States government. The Ukrainians (which I look at with a jaundiced eye) put the total at closer to 3/4 of a million. The BBC as of two months ago put their estimate at over 70,000.

If Russia is kicking Ukraine's ass so bad, Ukraine doesn't need any more of our weapons or money, do they?

I think you meant to state your question the other direction…but the answer is that they’re inflicting such heavy casualties on the Russians is because we (and European allies) are supplying them with the weaponry.

Russia has 144 million warm bodies to send to war (of course we subtract children, the handicapped, and the elderly from that number.
Ukraine has only around 39 million before we subtract the same ineligibles from that number.
Both sides employ women in combat.

So what? Not all soldiers are created equal, and when I discuss battle deaths of Russian soldiers, we aren’t talking about the dregs of the military. These are their front line troops. The best they had.


Russia wins a long-term war of attrition, unless Ukraine starts importing warm bodies from foreign nations.
Thanks to China, Iran, and N. Korea, Russia is in no danger of running out of tanks, planes and other war materiale'.

But, they are. While I agree that Russia likely wins a long war of attrition, it will take them years to replace what they’ve lost, and as of now, Russia is hobbled as a fighting force. Not to mention the reality that Iran and North Korea, absent nukes, don’t pose a major threat. China is the only country that has any realistic capabilities in a worldwide conflict against the U.S. and its allies, and it can’t project much strength over the entire globe. And now that it sees that Russia is a paper tiger, it will be leery.

No, Putin doesn't have to do ANYTHING except to keep fighting for what he wants in Ukraine.
The only way to stop him is to kill him.

Putin didn’t get this far by being an idiot. He understands that even if he wins this Ukrainian war, whatever that means, he’s lost a lot of clout and projected (and actual) strength.
If this is true, why would Putin continue to fight a losing battle that only weakens him?

And you’re right, the only way to stop him is to kill him, so if he keeps attacking neighboring states in an effort to reclaim the previous USSR borders in a bid to threaten US hegemony in the world, he should be killed.
Yes, but WE can't be the ones who kill him (not officially anyway).   Killing him would throw Russia into major turmoil initially, but who would rise from the ashes to be their next leader?  Would he be even worse than Putin?

I wouldn't trust the U.S. gov't's numbers on the war.  They have to show the taxpayers that sending all that money and weapons to Ukraine is justified.

You are right that Putin isn't stupid. He knows that if he tries expanding Russian aggression into NATO countries, then he has really shit in his mess kit.
Ukraine did not exist as an independent country before 1991.  Before that time, was the U.S.S.R. invading NATO countries?

No, I think Putin will be satisfied with reclaiming Ukraine.
The big question remains as to why we are defending one dictator against another dictator.   Zelenskyy is NOT the good guy he wants you to think he is.
That's why it is important for us to get out of the mess and warn both sides that any attempt to expand their fight into NATO countries will have very bad consequences.

The United States by ourselves cannot save the world.
IF for some crazy reason, China and Russia declared war on us at the same time, we can't win.

[canefan]

Nov 20, 2024 23:21:45 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 20, 2024 7:22:55 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Putin didn’t get this far by being an idiot. He understands that even if he wins this Ukrainian war, whatever that means, he’s lost a lot of clout and projected (and actual) strength.
If this is true, why would Putin continue to fight a losing battle that only weakens him?

And you’re right, the only way to stop him is to kill him, so if he keeps attacking neighboring states in an effort to reclaim the previous USSR borders in a bid to threaten US hegemony in the world, he should be killed.
Yes, but WE can't be the ones who kill him (not officially anyway).   Killing him would throw Russia into major turmoil initially, but who would rise from the ashes to be their next leader?  Would he be even worse than Putin?

I wouldn't trust the U.S. gov't's numbers on the war.  They have to show the taxpayers that sending all that money and weapons to Ukraine is justified.

You are right that Putin isn't stupid. He knows that if he tries expanding Russian aggression into NATO countries, then he has really shit in his mess kit.
Ukraine did not exist as an independent country before 1991.  Before that time, was the U.S.S.R. invading NATO countries?

No, I think Putin will be satisfied with reclaiming Ukraine.
The big question remains as to why we are defending one dictator against another dictator.   Zelenskyy is NOT the good guy he wants you to think he is.
That's why it is important for us to get out of the mess and warn both sides that any attempt to expand their fight into NATO countries will have very bad consequences.

The United States by ourselves cannot save the world.
IF for some crazy reason, China and Russia declared war on us at the same time, we can't win.

It wouldn't be just us. It would be us and NATO.
Russia and China aren't stronger than NATO. While China has expanded its military considerably, Russia adds very little. Against the combined might of North America and Europe it would have little chance.

[dilligaf]

Nov 21, 2024 0:17:25 GMT -5 canefan said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:21:45 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

I wouldn't trust the U.S. gov't's numbers on the war.  They have to show the taxpayers that sending all that money and weapons to Ukraine is justified.

You are right that Putin isn't stupid. He knows that if he tries expanding Russian aggression into NATO countries, then he has really shit in his mess kit.
Ukraine did not exist as an independent country before 1991.  Before that time, was the U.S.S.R. invading NATO countries?

No, I think Putin will be satisfied with reclaiming Ukraine.
The big question remains as to why we are defending one dictator against another dictator.   Zelenskyy is NOT the good guy he wants you to think he is.
That's why it is important for us to get out of the mess and warn both sides that any attempt to expand their fight into NATO countries will have very bad consequences.

The United States by ourselves cannot save the world.
IF for some crazy reason, China and Russia declared war on us at the same time, we can't win.

It wouldn't be just us. It would be us and NATO.
Russia and China aren't stronger than NATO. While China has expanded its military considerably, Russia adds very little. Against the combined might of North America and Europe it would have little chance.

That sounds good, but the reality is, WE are NATO.

Don't forget that IF China and Russia went to war against us, so would Iran and the rest of their allies.

How did our little NATO adventure in Korea work out?  36,500 Americans killed.  I am not including the numbers who were disabled because of these wars.
How did we do in Vietnam?  58,000 Americans killed.
How did things go in Afghanistan?   2,325 Americans killed.
Iraq? 4,492 Americans killed.   And that is the only war that America has won in my lifetime.

Our W-L ratio in the past 74 years sucks.

[Walter]

Nov 21, 2024 0:49:47 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 21, 2024 0:17:25 GMT -5 canefan said:

It wouldn't be just us. It would be us and NATO.
Russia and China aren't stronger than NATO. While China has expanded its military considerably, Russia adds very little. Against the combined might of North America and Europe it would have little chance.

That sounds good, but the reality is, WE are NATO.

Don't forget that IF China and Russia went to war against us, so would Iran and the rest of their allies.

How did our little NATO adventure in Korea work out?  36,500 Americans killed.  I am not including the numbers who were disabled because of these wars.
How did we do in Vietnam?  58,000 Americans killed.
How did things go in Afghanistan?   2,325 Americans killed.
Iraq? 4,492 Americans killed.   And that is the only war that America has won in my lifetime.

Our W-L ratio in the past 74 years sucks.

Russia has more KIA in a thousand days than the US has lost in 80 years.

And BTW... If Russia and China declared war on the US, it would be to achieve what goal?

[canefan]

Nov 21, 2024 0:49:47 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 21, 2024 0:17:25 GMT -5 canefan said:

It wouldn't be just us. It would be us and NATO.
Russia and China aren't stronger than NATO. While China has expanded its military considerably, Russia adds very little. Against the combined might of North America and Europe it would have little chance.

That sounds good, but the reality is, WE are NATO.

Don't forget that IF China and Russia went to war against us, so would Iran and the rest of their allies.

How did our little NATO adventure in Korea work out?  36,500 Americans killed.  I am not including the numbers who were disabled because of these wars.
How did we do in Vietnam?  58,000 Americans killed.
How did things go in Afghanistan?   2,325 Americans killed.
Iraq? 4,492 Americans killed.   And that is the only war that America has won in my lifetime.

Our W-L ratio in the past 74 years sucks.

It's a much different world today. Even compared to 20 years ago. And all out war would be tech heavy. Iran wouldn't even be a blip on the radar. Russia isn't much more. The only real challenge would be China and there's a reason they constantly try to steal our tech. We would suffer losses but overall we'd dominate.

[trnyerheadncough]

Nov 20, 2024 23:21:45 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 20, 2024 7:22:55 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Putin didn’t get this far by being an idiot. He understands that even if he wins this Ukrainian war, whatever that means, he’s lost a lot of clout and projected (and actual) strength.
If this is true, why would Putin continue to fight a losing battle that only weakens him?

And you’re right, the only way to stop him is to kill him, so if he keeps attacking neighboring states in an effort to reclaim the previous USSR borders in a bid to threaten US hegemony in the world, he should be killed.
Yes, but WE can't be the ones who kill him (not officially anyway).   Killing him would throw Russia into major turmoil initially, but who would rise from the ashes to be their next leader?  Would he be even worse than Putin?

I wouldn't trust the U.S. gov't's numbers on the war.  They have to show the taxpayers that sending all that money and weapons to Ukraine is justified.

You are right that Putin isn't stupid. He knows that if he tries expanding Russian aggression into NATO countries, then he has really shit in his mess kit.
Ukraine did not exist as an independent country before 1991.  Before that time, was the U.S.S.R. invading NATO countries?

No, I think Putin will be satisfied with reclaiming Ukraine.
The big question remains as to why we are defending one dictator against another dictator.   Zelenskyy is NOT the good guy he wants you to think he is.
That's why it is important for us to get out of the mess and warn both sides that any attempt to expand their fight into NATO countries will have very bad consequences.

The United States by ourselves cannot save the world.
IF for some crazy reason, China and Russia declared war on us at the same time, we can't win.

1. Putin keeps fighting because dropping out of this war weakens him even more than winning slowly. This is his only course. He can’t win quickly. He tried that and got pretty well whipped. He can’t drop out, as to do so would be even worse for Russian prestige desperately trying to reattain the superpower status of 40+ years ago. So this is the best course. Drag it out. Make it a meat grinder and hope Ukraine’s weapon suppliers lose their stomach to keep sending money, weapons, and equipment. He knows once everyone drops out, he wins.

2. We aren’t trying to kill him with this conflict. We’re trying to weaken him. And we are succeeding. That’s been the whole point. The neutralize Russia as a major military adversary. We are accomplishing that goal.

3. I would trust the U.S. government numbers, since they came from a report from Congress reporting to itself. This wasn’t some USA Today article. However, as I pointed out, I gave you 3 different sources. Even the lowest was 70,000, and that was a couple of months ago. And again, that 70k isn’t the cooks and the latrine guys. These are front line troops.

4. I agree that Russia isn’t likely now to mess around with NATO, but Ukraine is a key strategic country. It’s one of the world’s largest food suppliers. This was the first step. And suggesting that a ruthless dictator (like Putin) would simply stop if we let him just take a weaker county (in this case, Ukraine) has been has been tried before, and it didn’t work.

5. We aren’t “defending one dictator against another”. You’re looking at this wrong. Our goal is to marginalize one of our long term adversaries in the world. Defending a sovereign nation against naked aggression serves as a great talking point, but our true goal (IMO) is weakening Russia.

6. This conflict in Ukraine is part of a larger strategy to undermine NATO. Putin was using Ukraine as a litmus test to see how far he could push to gauge NATO’s mettle. None of this exists in a vacuum. Putin has aims larger than Ukraine. If Putin takes Ukraine, he suddenly controls the world’s 4th largest corn exporter. And the world’s sixth largest grain exporter. The upside for him is that Ukraine wasn’t part of NATO and a win allows him to expand.

7. We aren’t trying to save the world. This is absolutely about protecting the interests of the United States against Russia gaining even more power and resources.

8. Lastly, if China and Russia declared war against the USA, depending on what you’re talking about, I would disagree. If nukes were included, no one wins. In a conventional war, if China and Russia declared war against us, and attempted to invade us, they’d lose. Badly. Neither of them has the Air Force and Navy assets to get a significant force to our shores. Secondly, NATO would accordingly declare war on our side and China/Russia have no prayer. The only place where I see the possibility of a US defeat is a regional war somewhere in the Southeast Asia, where China is close to its resupply. That’s why Taiwan is a flashpoint. It’s realistically a place where China can stand toe to toe with the U.S. if we decided to defend there. And even then, Taiwan is no pushover. The geography is difficult. They're well defended and well equipped to defend the island from an invader. If the U.S. decided to ally formally with Taiwan to defend the island, China would have a serious fight on its hands.

[dilligaf]

Nov 21, 2024 7:24:21 GMT -5 Walter said:

Nov 21, 2024 0:49:47 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

That sounds good, but the reality is, WE are NATO.

Don't forget that IF China and Russia went to war against us, so would Iran and the rest of their allies.

How did our little NATO adventure in Korea work out?  36,500 Americans killed.  I am not including the numbers who were disabled because of these wars.
How did we do in Vietnam?  58,000 Americans killed.
How did things go in Afghanistan?   2,325 Americans killed.
Iraq? 4,492 Americans killed.   And that is the only war that America has won in my lifetime.

Our W-L ratio in the past 74 years sucks.

Russia has more KIA in a thousand days than the US has lost in 80 years.

And BTW... If Russia and China declared war on the US, it would be to achieve what goal?

Where do you get THAT number from?

You did NOT ask that question, did you?
Why did Russia join forces with the U.S., Great Britain, et al, in WWII?   Did they plan to become a democracy once Hitler was defeated?
Why did China fight WITH us to defeat Japan?
What does the U.S. now represent to both those countries?
Take your time ..........  maybe it will come to you in a vision.

[trnyerheadncough]

Nov 21, 2024 19:38:49 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

Nov 21, 2024 7:24:21 GMT -5 Walter said:

Russia has more KIA in a thousand days than the US has lost in 80 years.

And BTW... If Russia and China declared war on the US, it would be to achieve what goal?

Where do you get THAT number from?

It depends on what number you use for Russian KIA in Ukraine as to whether it surpasses US KIA since 1944. Although I guess technically one couldn’t use D-Day in the calculation since it is technically more than 80 years ago. We lost 2500 KIA on D-Day.

You did NOT ask that question, did you?
Why did Russia join forces with the U.S., Great Britain, et al, in WWII?

Because communists hated Nazis, although it bears noting that at the beginning of WWII, Russia signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Germany which, in theory, divided Europe between German and Russian spheres and was intended to last 10 years.

Did they plan to become a democracy once Hitler was defeated?

No, but they were attacked by Hitler in 1941 which voided the pact.

Why did China fight WITH us to defeat Japan?

China was fighting Japan long before Pearl Harbor. In fact, China had been at war with Japan for a couple of years before Poland was invaded in 1939. More precisely, we decided to fight with China once we were attacked at Pearl Harbor.

What does the U.S. now represent to both those countries?

Geo-political adversaries. Lots of things change in 70+ years.

Take your time ..........  maybe it will come to you in a vision.

[dilligaf]

You all make good points, so I'll just say I hope I am wrong.

TRN is right about one thing, for sure.
Thanks to our 2nd Amendment, which Demonrats want to nullify, all those big bad "assault rifles" in the hands of American civilians would make a formidable opponent for any army wanting to invade our country.  I am NOT saying that those armed citizens could defeat an organized invading army, but fighting them beats sitting back and acting like sheep.
America also has plenty of military-aged veterans who still know how to use OUR weapons of war, and could reinforce our troops on almost a moment's notice.

So y'all win the argument.
But don't think you know what's going on in Putin's head.  The Ukraine War is not going to end under Bitem's watch.  He and his cabinet don't have that capability.

[trnyerheadncough]

Nov 21, 2024 20:23:16 GMT -5 dilligaf said:

You all make good points, so I'll just say I hope I am wrong.

TRN is right about one thing, for sure.
Thanks to our 2nd Amendment, which Demonrats want to nullify, all those big bad "assault rifles" in the hands of American civilians would make a formidable opponent for any army wanting to invade our country.  I am NOT saying that those armed citizens could defeat an organized invading army, but fighting them beats sitting back and acting like sheep.
America also has plenty of military-aged veterans who still know how to use OUR weapons of war, and could reinforce our troops on almost a moment's notice.

So y'all win the argument.
But don't think you know what's going on in Putin's head.  The Ukraine War is not going to end under Bitem's watch.  He and his cabinet don't have that capability.

While I certainly wouldn’t underestimate the size of a guerrilla force that would be tens of millions of armed citizens, the fact is, China and Russia can’t get here easily. If they did somehow defeat our air and naval defenses and launched a full scale invasion, our goose is probably already cooked.

[nu5ncbigred]

I think Trump and his transition team and incoming people will set the ground work for a peace deal that will be reached / announced with in a few days of Trump becoming President again. Both of those countries are tired of the attrition of this war in cost and lives and are looking for a way out, not escalation.

[trnyerheadncough]

Nov 21, 2024 21:19:36 GMT -5 nu5ncbigred said:

I think Trump and his transition team and incoming people will set the ground work for a peace deal that will be reached / announced with in a few days of Trump becoming President again. Both of those countries are tired of the attrition of this war in cost and lives and are looking for a way out, not escalation.

The issue is going to be surrendering territory.

I think I read that a possible solution is Ukraine giving up some territory, in exchange for NATO membership.

That might be something they can stomach.

[nu5ncbigred]

Nov 21, 2024 22:19:12 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Nov 21, 2024 21:19:36 GMT -5 nu5ncbigred said:

I think Trump and his transition team and incoming people will set the ground work for a peace deal that will be reached / announced with in a few days of Trump becoming President again. Both of those countries are tired of the attrition of this war in cost and lives and are looking for a way out, not escalation.

The issue is going to be surrendering territory.

I think I read that a possible solution is Ukraine giving up some territory, in exchange for NATO membership.

That might be something they can stomach.

There are many issues but the loss of life on both sides and the almost total destruction of the Ukraine economy are huge. I don’t see Russia ever agree to extending NATO into that geographical area. Making it a neutral intact nation with economic ties to both Russia and the west is the best that can be expected. The Russian language majority population provinces are all Russia should be allowed. Everything they took along the Black Sea north and east of Crimea needs to be returned to Ukraine.