the chase begins...
Thursday Games:
South Carolina +3 1/2 at Vanderbilt normally i'd be pretty hesitant backing the 'dores as chalk vs a team they've lost to 7 straight by an average of 11/game, and have been a dog in 16 straight games in this series. that said, vandy's defense improved from allowing 33 pts/game in '14 to just 21 last yr. the 'cocks were awful last yr, have a new coach, and my cfb nerd stat #1 of the week; teams w/new coaches who won 4/less games the previous year are 36-68-5 ats since '90. so i've got that going for me, which is nice. vanderbilt
Oregon State +13 at Minnesota gophers also officially have a new coach, terry claeys, who took over mid-season for the classy jerry kill. minnesota has actually become more competitive, going 22-17 su the last 3 yrs. beavers have slid every year the last 4, going 2-10, and haven't won vs a power 5 ooc program in 5 years. but in the last 8 yrs gophers are just 2-10 ats as 9+ favorites. oregon st.
Friday Game:
Kansas State +15 1/2 at Stanford - cardinal coming off a great 12-2 season (5th 10+ yr in the last 6 seasons) + destroying iowa in pasadena. mccaffrey easily could have won the heisman last yr and is a favorite for the award this season. plus 2 trends are in their favor; game 1 teams who won/covered their bowl game and start the season in the top 25 are 38-15 ats since '05, and teams like k-state who lost their bowl game by 14+ and are road dogs in game 1 are just 24-45 ats since '00. but... bill snyder is 22-2 su in season openers, the 'cats are 20-8 ats getting pts on the road, w/10 outright upsets, and are 5-1 ats the last 6 getting 10+. plus i like 'mission' teams, who've had a rare losing season preceded by a series of .500+ yrs. i'll take the pts. kansas st.
Saturday Games:
Georgia Tech -3 1/2 at Boston College - the jackets fall in that mission category too, going a shocking 3-9 in ;15 after averaging 8+ wins each of the previous 4 yrs. bc's defense is tough as nails, especially vs the run which is what paul johnson likes to do. plus the game is in ireland, which you'd think would be more hospitable to irish catholics than southern engineers. plus bc's offense is horrible. in back to back games last yr, the eagles allowed just 9, and then 3 points, and lost both games. first time that's happened in d-1 cfb since '89. georgia tech
Missouri +9 1/2 at West Virginia - tough game to handicap. i like sec teams getting points on the road vs ooc opponents, and mizzou is 12-5 ats as an away dog, while wvu is just 9-16 ats as home chalk. what scares me is how bad the tigers became on offense in '15, going from 39 to 14 pts/game. another new coach there as barry odom takes over for gary pinkel. the 'eers offense is good enough to run away w/this, but missouri has the better d, and early in the season that usually matters more. missouri.
Clemson -7 1/2 at Auburn - talk about programs in opposite directions. never has the fever been higher at clemson, w/a preseason #2 ranking and expectations being even higher. dabo swinney has done a great job there, while the seat is pretty hot under gus malzhan, who after making the '13 bcs title game has gone 15-11 su. now cu travels to the plains to play the team after whom they modeled their school colors, their nickname, even their fight song. heisman favorite deshaun watson (only player in d-1 history to have 4000 passing/1000 rushing in a single season) is one of 8 returning starters on offense. but the trends don't favor them; cu is 5-9 su/ats on the road vs sec opponents, 3-7 as -3+, while auburn is 7-1 as home dogs of 14/less, and is 29-0 su at home vs ooc since '07. but vegas sometimes has that 0.5 on the line to try to get more money on one side. i'll roll the dice on a late clemson td to cover.
UCLA +3 at Texas A&M - one of the big pac 12/sec matchups of the weekend. since manziel burst on the scene in the aggies' 12-2 season in '12, a&m has gone 9-4/8-5/8-5. oklahoma transfer trevor knight will be taking the snaps, vs ucla's josh rosen in an attractive qb matchup. i saw where one vegas oddsmaker is predicting ucla for this year's cfb playoff. not sure if i'm willing to go that far, but the bruins will be improved, especially on defense. nfl scouts are drooling over rosen already, but ucla lost 8 players to the nfl draft last april (only osu and clemson had more drafted). they also have a rb, soso jamabo, who is anything but soso. 6+ yds/carry. the aggies are just 3-11 ats at home the last 2 years, and i think ucla pulls the outright upset here.
Rutgers +26 at Washington - the huskies are my pick for surprise team out of the pac 12 this year. jake browning returns at qb, they have a good rb (myles gaskin) running behind a line w/4 returning starters, a wr (john ross) who missed '15 due to injury, and an improving defense (allowed 7 less pts and 60 less yards/game in '15 over '14). ex-osu assistant chris ash, who now is the head coach at rutgers, actually has some decent talent on the o-line/d-line. but he has no playmakers. the last 6 times rutgers has done on the road, they've lost by 32+/game. plus that nerd stat 1st year head coach trend applies here too. i've already got my money on this one. washington.
LSU -10 vs. Wisconsin - 2 yrs ago when these 2 opened the season in houston, uw controlled the game for 3 qtrs, before some injuries on the badger d-line and to star rb melvin gordon opened the door for 2 late lsu 4th qtr td's and a 28-24 win. the talent gap is much much wider now. uw still has a quality d, but the badger run game went from 320 yds/game in '14 down to 150/game last yr. that will not keep the badger d off the field. there are a ton of trends favoring uw; lsu is 0-4 ats as road chalk of 7+, uw is 30-10-1 ats getting 7+, and 14-2-1 ats when seeking revenge getting 7+. but even though this line is 3 pts too high imho, i think fournette and co. will wear them down. lsu.
North Carolina +3 vs. Georgia - mark richt out, kirby smart in for the dogs as head coach. more important questions imho are the health of rb's nick chubb and sony michel. if so, a unc defense which allowed 645 yards rushing to baylor in their bowl last yr (645 yrds!!!) is in more trouble. i love elijah wood for the heels, who is a real good back. but w/marquis williams gone, unc doesn't have the offensive firepower to make up for their piss poor defense. georgia.
Oklahoma -10 vs. Houston - a lot being made over this 'neutral' game being played in houston. i bet they'll be more sooner fans in the stands than those backing the cougars. tom herman did the best coaching job in the country last season in taking uh to a 13-1 finish, and he has qb greg ward back. ou has struggled some out of the gate, going 3-7 ats in season openers the last decade. but qb baker mayfield has a much stronger supporting cast. still, of houston's 11 losses since '12, only 1 has been by more than 8 pts. and they've caused 108 turnovers from opponents the last 3 years, easily the best total in the country. that said, where there were once no expectations, now there are. the sooners have played w/expectations for generations. oklahoma.
Southern California +10 1/2 vs. Alabama - i saw a story that said, since '99, the previous year's national champ has won it's opener 17 straight times by an average score of 44-15. tide is a little greener in terms of experience than saban's had before, and he's has another new qb (how often can they do that?? lol), but the talent obviously is there. plus freshmen started a combined total of 57 games for alabama last year. but usc is not devoid of talent; qb max browne has a strong arm, but little experience. trojans do have all 5 o-linemen returning, they've also won 18 straight season openers, and they are 11-4 ats getting 9+ pts. but the tide in neutral site games is 5-1 ats w/an average win margin of 19. might be closer to 14 here, but that would be enough. alabama.
BYU +1 at Arizona - new coach for byu, and they have not 1 but 2 quality qb's in taysom hill and tanner magnum and their entire o-line returning. 'zona was decimated by injuries last year, 22 different starters on d. i do like their qb, anu soloman, and they have a rb, nick wilson, who is promising. normally i'd take the points and the cougars here, but byu has arch rival utah on deck next week in a revenge matchup, and they may be peeking. shaky nod to arizona.
Sunday Game:
Notre Dame -3 1/2 at Texas - i said earlier malzahn at auburn had a hot seat. well, just ask a texan; everything is bigger, and hotter, there. ask charlie strong. he's gone 11-14 his 1st 2 years in austin. he's refused to name a starting qb (frosh shane buechele or sr tyrone swoopes), while nd has 2 guys (malik zaire and deshone kizer) who both played well at qb last yr. irish did lose a ton of talent (7 players drafted) though, and will have an inexperienced wr corps matching up against the 'horns' strength-its secondary. nd blew out texas 38-3 last year, and the game wasn't even that close. so revenge is a good factor here, plus some trends; nd is just 5-14 su in its first road game, and 4-9 ats as road chalk, while texas is 4-1 ats at home w/ooc revenge. texas
Monday Game:
Ole Miss +4 1/2 vs. Florida State - another sec team getting pts on the road, which is typically a good bet. rebs have chad kelly back, last year's best qb in the league. but they are replacing 14 starters. fsu has 17 starters back, all 11 on offense. dalvin cook is one of the best rb's in the country, the noles are 7-3 as ooc home faves less than 10 pts, jimbo fisher is 7-1 su vs sec opponents, and nerd cfb stat of the week #2; week 1 favorites of less than 10, who lost their bowl game last year as a favorite of 7+, are 8-0 ats since '90. i'm guessing that's a sign of renewed motivation. so i've got that going for me, which is nice. too. florida state.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
