Post by trnyerheadncough on Sept 17, 2014 11:17:05 GMT -5
"I don't think so, but I can check with the kitchen."
Ok sports fans, another week, another group of picks. Robb is out to an early lead, but let's be honest, he's dead money.
I had already typed out about 60% of this yesterday when my internet crashed, so I probably won't be quite so quick to retype all of that shit...again. Now, with that said, let's jump right into it, shall we? You know we gotta do the Thursday tilt....big football game in New York. 
THURSDAY GAME:
Auburn -9 at Kansas State: We got a barn burner in Manhattan! Times Square. Hookers. You simply can't go wrong. The Tigers take their offensive show on the road against the wily Bill Snyder, who always seems to play well in games like this. At the same time, this is a very good Auburn team. I'm not 100% sold on the Wildcats, who had to score a dozen points in the final stanza against the Cyclones of Iowa State to come back to win. That close win looks a little better this week after Iowa State beat Iowa. The Wildcats are relatively stout against the run, but this isn't just a running squad. Auburn has talent at the skill positions and are good enough in the pass to keep teams honest. I suspect the Wildcats and the home crowd will keep this one a ball game for a half, but down the stretch Auburn will just be too good to make it happen. Tigers.
SATURDAY GAMES:
Iowa +6 1/2 at Pitt: The preseason darkhorse to make some noise in the Big 10 and national stage is now off to the glue factory when the Hawkeyes laid an egg on their home field in losing to otherwise winless Iowa State. What's more, they only gained 275 yards in that game. I guess they still have a chance through the Big 10, but national dreams are now effectively shitcanned, considering their two wins are a 31-23 triumph over Northern Iowa, and a miraculous 17-13 come back win over Ball State.
Pitt, on the other hand, looks to me like a team that deserves to be ranked. The Panthers are averaging damn near 350 yards on the ground. They have a nice win over the giant killers known as Boston College. With the game being in Heinz Field, and Iowa teetering on the brink of oblivion. That usually makes a team hungry...but I think the spread is underestimating Pitt...who is a very good football team. Panthers.
Maryland PK at Syracuse: This spread has dwindled down to where we are now at the first "pick'em" of the season. I originally thought Syracuse wasn't worth a damn after needing 2 overtimes to outlast the mighty Villanova Wildcats. Then they follow it up with a 40-3 thrashing of Central Michigan, who is not an awful football team. The Orange have some good rushers. They are undefeated. But Maryland is a horse of a different color. They have an offense that is in a different zip code. I like CJ Brown, and the receivers, Diggs and Long are the best they'll face all season, with the possible exception of what FSU brings to the table. Too much offense for the Terps. They get it done on the road.
Utah +4 at Michigan: Can anyone think about this game without eventually saying to themselves, "Yeah, but remember Michigan got the shit beaten out of it by Notre Dame."? Yeah...me either. That game alone makes me think that the Wolverines are no better than mediocre. Their other two games are whippings of Appalachian State and Miami of Ohio. Devin Gardner has been a pick machine. 4 in 3 games. 5 touchdowns. We don't really know what we got in Utah. 2-0 with wins over Idaho State and Fresno State. Normally, letting Fresno State score 27 points would give me cause for concern...however, Utah got it to 45-7 late in the third, and I'm going to guess they started playing the cheerleaders. I tend to think that Michigan probably isn't quite as bad as the Notre Dame score would indicate, and them being at home, they still have a lot to play for. Wolverines!!!
UF +14 1/2 at Alabama: This line has been consistently drifting downward since earlier in the week. In fact, yesterday when I first was drafting this week's games, the line was 15 1/2. Since we're a day later, it has drifted down further. I don't see where all the money is on Florida...or maybe they thought that was too many points to give. Either way, it doesn't change my pick. The Gators had their collective lives flash before their eyes as they needed 3 overtimes to survive a game Kentucky team. A game they could have easily lost a handful of times before they pulled it out. Despite several years in several systems, Driskell is still struggling with downfield passing. That's unfortunate because Bama is most susceptible to the pass. Robinson is a definite downfield threat, and I'm sure when the Gators need to throw, they'll be looking to him. On the other side, the Gators' best playmakers, without a doubt, are Hargreaves and Fowler. Those two can no doubt play. The great matchup will be VHIII against Amari Cooper. That contest will be determined on the arm of Sims and/or Coker. Cooper can't throw it to himself, but I think Bama will find some ways to get Cooper open. I also think this might be the coming out party for OJ Howard this year.
At the end of the day, I still don't see the Gators winning this game, or keeping it within the spread. While I think the Gators' defense is legit, I don't see the offense being able to do enough to stay on the field long enough to give the defense enough rest. In the meantime, you know that Bama is going to use that running game to pound the rock over and over. And over. Gators are thin at DT, and while I think it will be spirited early, the crocs wear out down the stretch and Bama simply shows that it is the better football team. Especially at home. One other thing to consider....the Gators had some cramping issues on Saturday night at home. If they're on the field for a long time...it is supposed to be 88 degrees in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Tide.
Georgia Tech +8 at Virginia Tech: The potential special season in Blacksburg took a nosedive with their loss to East Carolina. Letdowns suck. Now, the Hokies have to regroup for conference play, and start out with the Jackets, and the triple option. People like to talk about how tough the triple option is to defend, and it is...but the Hokies have won 4 straight and 8 of 10 since joining the ACC. Also adding in the fact that it looks to me that Georgia Tech is lacking something on defense. What would concern me if I were a GT fan...Georgia Southern is a triple option team...if anyone should be able to defend it effectively, it would be GT. Uhh..no. 528 yards and 38 points, and had to score a late touchdown to win. Even though VT has dominated the series, the last 6 games have had MOVs of 11 or less. Still, I think GT just isn't good enough on defense and Bud Foster will get VT in a position to cover. Hokies.
Clemson +20 at Florida State: I wonder how much of this spread is driven by last year's ownership of Memorial Stadium by the Noles in their coming out party on national television on their way to destroying Clemson, 51-14...and it wasn't that close. This year, the Tigers are without Watkins, Boyd, Bryant, and the runningback whose name eludes me. So far this year, FSU has been rather lackluster in their two wins. Are they just not that good, or have they been sleep walking? I guess this weekend will tell us. All time, Clemson is 3-11 against FSU in Tallahassee, and only 1 of those 3 has been in the last 20 years. However, most of those wins were inside of 20 points...at least outside of the dynasty years. The question is, is this year's FSU team gonna take care of business. I don't think too many folks think that Clemson is really going to win (especially with Cole Stoudt under center), but that 20 point spread seems like it is too much.
I won't go against my heart, even in a game where pride is on the line, so you know I'm going to take the Noles. But, if Clemson is smart, they'll have plenty of plays for Deshaun Watson, and I think with his mobility, he will keep the score respectable. I won't be surprised at all if this is a 10-17 point win for the Noles....which means a loss in our game. Nuts.
Virginia +14 1/2 at BYU: I know Virginia has been on the list now 3 of the past 4 weeks, but I can't help but be impressed with them. Playing UCLA very tough, and then beating a Louisville team thought to be #2 or #3 in the ACC, Virginia is absolutely headed in the right direction. Now they take the show on the road and face the BYutes, who followed up their dismantling of Texas with a headscratcher close win over Houston. The Cougars are lead by the gritty Taysom Hill, who had 160 yards on 26 carries against Houston, which came on the heels of a 24 carry, 99 yard rushing performance against Texas, which was preceded by a 12 carry, 97 yard performance against UConn. Those numbers would be much more gaudy if he wasn't getting sacked more than a hooker on Sunset Blvd. 11 times in 3 games. Virgina is tied for 8th in the country in sacking the quarterback. I'm sold on this Virginia squad. I'll take the Wahoos all day here with the points. Hell, I'd even think about them long and hard on the money line.
Mississippi State +9 1/2 at LSU: Another Saturday in September, another night game under the lights in Tiger Stadium. Since 1990, the Bulldogs are 3-21 against LSU. Wanna know how many of them 3 were in Red Stick? 1, in 1991. Out of the 21 losses, wanna know how many were by less than 10 points? Exactly 4. Out of them 4, wanna know how many occurred in Baton Rouge? A deuce. Those years? 1996 and 2000. Sorry, the Bulldogs are riding SEC coattails right now. I like Dak Prescott, but LSU all day.
Miami +7 at Nebraska: A tale of two underachievers so far. Nebraska needing a herculean play by its star to pull out a win against McNeese State, and Miami shitting the bed on Labor Day. I don't think either of these teams are particularly great, but we're dealing in history sometimes, and it isn't a bad thing to occasionally knock the dust off some of the old guard and see what they got. I like to think Miami can find an answer to Abdullah, but I say that, and they'll probably surrender 250 yards to the kid. In my original draft of this...I had plenty of stats to justify my pick (which will probably lose), so I'm not going to bother to do it again. LOL Basically, Miami seems to play this type of game pretty well, whether it was UF last year, or Ohio State a few years ago. I'll go with the Hurricanes against my better judgment. But you might wanna go ahead and pencil me in 0-1 for this one.
Oklahoma -7 at West Virginia: I can't help but brag a little bit on FSU transfer Clint Trickett. I said last week that if he was 5 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier, we'd be looking at a first round pick. I think he deserves to be squarely in the Heisman discussion at this point. The numbers don't lie: 101 of 134 for 1224 and 7 touchdowns, only 1 pick. Number 2 in the nation in accuracy (75.4% second only to Bo Wallace who is at 75.5%). Number 3 in yards passing. Number 4 in yards passing per game. Top 20 in touchdowns and QBR. What makes him even better is that those numbers include 2 games against power 5 teams, including Alabama. He is a very good, very smart football player, and right now, he's in the zone running Holgerson's offense. I doubt he's intimidated by Oklahoma coming to town. I think that the Mountaineers are going to score points. The key is whether they can hold Oklahoma down enough to make it a ball game. They did hang around with Bama, but you sort of got the feeling that Bama wasn't going to lose that game.
Night game in Morgantown. The only time the Sooners have been to Morgantown, they escaped with a 50-49 win. I kind of get the same feeling here. I'll take the Moutaineers and the points.
California +9 at Arizona: I needed a game to finish out the round for this week, and when I reviewed what I had, I felt like we didn't have enough PAC-12 representation this week...so I put this one in, which seemed like the best game of the bunch. Both of these squads are still undefeated, but really haven't played anyone, outside of Arizona playing UTSA, which isn't a bad ball club. As usual, Cal can score a lot of points, and Arizona seems to give up a bunch. I honestly don't have a clue...but I've only picked 3 dogs this week. Let's make it four. Golden Bears.
Good luck all.
Ok sports fans, another week, another group of picks. Robb is out to an early lead, but let's be honest, he's dead money.
I had already typed out about 60% of this yesterday when my internet crashed, so I probably won't be quite so quick to retype all of that shit...again. Now, with that said, let's jump right into it, shall we? You know we gotta do the Thursday tilt....big football game in New York. 
THURSDAY GAME:
Auburn -9 at Kansas State: We got a barn burner in Manhattan! Times Square. Hookers. You simply can't go wrong. The Tigers take their offensive show on the road against the wily Bill Snyder, who always seems to play well in games like this. At the same time, this is a very good Auburn team. I'm not 100% sold on the Wildcats, who had to score a dozen points in the final stanza against the Cyclones of Iowa State to come back to win. That close win looks a little better this week after Iowa State beat Iowa. The Wildcats are relatively stout against the run, but this isn't just a running squad. Auburn has talent at the skill positions and are good enough in the pass to keep teams honest. I suspect the Wildcats and the home crowd will keep this one a ball game for a half, but down the stretch Auburn will just be too good to make it happen. Tigers.
SATURDAY GAMES:
Iowa +6 1/2 at Pitt: The preseason darkhorse to make some noise in the Big 10 and national stage is now off to the glue factory when the Hawkeyes laid an egg on their home field in losing to otherwise winless Iowa State. What's more, they only gained 275 yards in that game. I guess they still have a chance through the Big 10, but national dreams are now effectively shitcanned, considering their two wins are a 31-23 triumph over Northern Iowa, and a miraculous 17-13 come back win over Ball State.
Pitt, on the other hand, looks to me like a team that deserves to be ranked. The Panthers are averaging damn near 350 yards on the ground. They have a nice win over the giant killers known as Boston College. With the game being in Heinz Field, and Iowa teetering on the brink of oblivion. That usually makes a team hungry...but I think the spread is underestimating Pitt...who is a very good football team. Panthers.
Maryland PK at Syracuse: This spread has dwindled down to where we are now at the first "pick'em" of the season. I originally thought Syracuse wasn't worth a damn after needing 2 overtimes to outlast the mighty Villanova Wildcats. Then they follow it up with a 40-3 thrashing of Central Michigan, who is not an awful football team. The Orange have some good rushers. They are undefeated. But Maryland is a horse of a different color. They have an offense that is in a different zip code. I like CJ Brown, and the receivers, Diggs and Long are the best they'll face all season, with the possible exception of what FSU brings to the table. Too much offense for the Terps. They get it done on the road.
Utah +4 at Michigan: Can anyone think about this game without eventually saying to themselves, "Yeah, but remember Michigan got the shit beaten out of it by Notre Dame."? Yeah...me either. That game alone makes me think that the Wolverines are no better than mediocre. Their other two games are whippings of Appalachian State and Miami of Ohio. Devin Gardner has been a pick machine. 4 in 3 games. 5 touchdowns. We don't really know what we got in Utah. 2-0 with wins over Idaho State and Fresno State. Normally, letting Fresno State score 27 points would give me cause for concern...however, Utah got it to 45-7 late in the third, and I'm going to guess they started playing the cheerleaders. I tend to think that Michigan probably isn't quite as bad as the Notre Dame score would indicate, and them being at home, they still have a lot to play for. Wolverines!!!
UF +14 1/2 at Alabama: This line has been consistently drifting downward since earlier in the week. In fact, yesterday when I first was drafting this week's games, the line was 15 1/2. Since we're a day later, it has drifted down further. I don't see where all the money is on Florida...or maybe they thought that was too many points to give. Either way, it doesn't change my pick. The Gators had their collective lives flash before their eyes as they needed 3 overtimes to survive a game Kentucky team. A game they could have easily lost a handful of times before they pulled it out. Despite several years in several systems, Driskell is still struggling with downfield passing. That's unfortunate because Bama is most susceptible to the pass. Robinson is a definite downfield threat, and I'm sure when the Gators need to throw, they'll be looking to him. On the other side, the Gators' best playmakers, without a doubt, are Hargreaves and Fowler. Those two can no doubt play. The great matchup will be VHIII against Amari Cooper. That contest will be determined on the arm of Sims and/or Coker. Cooper can't throw it to himself, but I think Bama will find some ways to get Cooper open. I also think this might be the coming out party for OJ Howard this year.
At the end of the day, I still don't see the Gators winning this game, or keeping it within the spread. While I think the Gators' defense is legit, I don't see the offense being able to do enough to stay on the field long enough to give the defense enough rest. In the meantime, you know that Bama is going to use that running game to pound the rock over and over. And over. Gators are thin at DT, and while I think it will be spirited early, the crocs wear out down the stretch and Bama simply shows that it is the better football team. Especially at home. One other thing to consider....the Gators had some cramping issues on Saturday night at home. If they're on the field for a long time...it is supposed to be 88 degrees in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Tide.
Georgia Tech +8 at Virginia Tech: The potential special season in Blacksburg took a nosedive with their loss to East Carolina. Letdowns suck. Now, the Hokies have to regroup for conference play, and start out with the Jackets, and the triple option. People like to talk about how tough the triple option is to defend, and it is...but the Hokies have won 4 straight and 8 of 10 since joining the ACC. Also adding in the fact that it looks to me that Georgia Tech is lacking something on defense. What would concern me if I were a GT fan...Georgia Southern is a triple option team...if anyone should be able to defend it effectively, it would be GT. Uhh..no. 528 yards and 38 points, and had to score a late touchdown to win. Even though VT has dominated the series, the last 6 games have had MOVs of 11 or less. Still, I think GT just isn't good enough on defense and Bud Foster will get VT in a position to cover. Hokies.
Clemson +20 at Florida State: I wonder how much of this spread is driven by last year's ownership of Memorial Stadium by the Noles in their coming out party on national television on their way to destroying Clemson, 51-14...and it wasn't that close. This year, the Tigers are without Watkins, Boyd, Bryant, and the runningback whose name eludes me. So far this year, FSU has been rather lackluster in their two wins. Are they just not that good, or have they been sleep walking? I guess this weekend will tell us. All time, Clemson is 3-11 against FSU in Tallahassee, and only 1 of those 3 has been in the last 20 years. However, most of those wins were inside of 20 points...at least outside of the dynasty years. The question is, is this year's FSU team gonna take care of business. I don't think too many folks think that Clemson is really going to win (especially with Cole Stoudt under center), but that 20 point spread seems like it is too much.
I won't go against my heart, even in a game where pride is on the line, so you know I'm going to take the Noles. But, if Clemson is smart, they'll have plenty of plays for Deshaun Watson, and I think with his mobility, he will keep the score respectable. I won't be surprised at all if this is a 10-17 point win for the Noles....which means a loss in our game. Nuts.
Virginia +14 1/2 at BYU: I know Virginia has been on the list now 3 of the past 4 weeks, but I can't help but be impressed with them. Playing UCLA very tough, and then beating a Louisville team thought to be #2 or #3 in the ACC, Virginia is absolutely headed in the right direction. Now they take the show on the road and face the BYutes, who followed up their dismantling of Texas with a headscratcher close win over Houston. The Cougars are lead by the gritty Taysom Hill, who had 160 yards on 26 carries against Houston, which came on the heels of a 24 carry, 99 yard rushing performance against Texas, which was preceded by a 12 carry, 97 yard performance against UConn. Those numbers would be much more gaudy if he wasn't getting sacked more than a hooker on Sunset Blvd. 11 times in 3 games. Virgina is tied for 8th in the country in sacking the quarterback. I'm sold on this Virginia squad. I'll take the Wahoos all day here with the points. Hell, I'd even think about them long and hard on the money line.
Mississippi State +9 1/2 at LSU: Another Saturday in September, another night game under the lights in Tiger Stadium. Since 1990, the Bulldogs are 3-21 against LSU. Wanna know how many of them 3 were in Red Stick? 1, in 1991. Out of the 21 losses, wanna know how many were by less than 10 points? Exactly 4. Out of them 4, wanna know how many occurred in Baton Rouge? A deuce. Those years? 1996 and 2000. Sorry, the Bulldogs are riding SEC coattails right now. I like Dak Prescott, but LSU all day.
Miami +7 at Nebraska: A tale of two underachievers so far. Nebraska needing a herculean play by its star to pull out a win against McNeese State, and Miami shitting the bed on Labor Day. I don't think either of these teams are particularly great, but we're dealing in history sometimes, and it isn't a bad thing to occasionally knock the dust off some of the old guard and see what they got. I like to think Miami can find an answer to Abdullah, but I say that, and they'll probably surrender 250 yards to the kid. In my original draft of this...I had plenty of stats to justify my pick (which will probably lose), so I'm not going to bother to do it again. LOL Basically, Miami seems to play this type of game pretty well, whether it was UF last year, or Ohio State a few years ago. I'll go with the Hurricanes against my better judgment. But you might wanna go ahead and pencil me in 0-1 for this one.
Oklahoma -7 at West Virginia: I can't help but brag a little bit on FSU transfer Clint Trickett. I said last week that if he was 5 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier, we'd be looking at a first round pick. I think he deserves to be squarely in the Heisman discussion at this point. The numbers don't lie: 101 of 134 for 1224 and 7 touchdowns, only 1 pick. Number 2 in the nation in accuracy (75.4% second only to Bo Wallace who is at 75.5%). Number 3 in yards passing. Number 4 in yards passing per game. Top 20 in touchdowns and QBR. What makes him even better is that those numbers include 2 games against power 5 teams, including Alabama. He is a very good, very smart football player, and right now, he's in the zone running Holgerson's offense. I doubt he's intimidated by Oklahoma coming to town. I think that the Mountaineers are going to score points. The key is whether they can hold Oklahoma down enough to make it a ball game. They did hang around with Bama, but you sort of got the feeling that Bama wasn't going to lose that game.
Night game in Morgantown. The only time the Sooners have been to Morgantown, they escaped with a 50-49 win. I kind of get the same feeling here. I'll take the Moutaineers and the points.
California +9 at Arizona: I needed a game to finish out the round for this week, and when I reviewed what I had, I felt like we didn't have enough PAC-12 representation this week...so I put this one in, which seemed like the best game of the bunch. Both of these squads are still undefeated, but really haven't played anyone, outside of Arizona playing UTSA, which isn't a bad ball club. As usual, Cal can score a lot of points, and Arizona seems to give up a bunch. I honestly don't have a clue...but I've only picked 3 dogs this week. Let's make it four. Golden Bears.
Good luck all.
...Maybe they can dig up Kenny Loggins to sing the opening credits 
